by Declan Jordan

​This season’s Airtricity League of Ireland kicks off this week. The Premier Division features 10 teams, with 12 teams in the First Division.
 
Colleagues in UCC will be disappointed that this season the local side, Cork City, will be plying their trade in the First Division. The relegation of Cork City last season followed a rapid decline, since the club were league and cup double winners as recently as 2017, and were in the top two league positions for the five seasons from 2014 to 2018.
 
Aside from the local disappointment, the relegation of Cork City also has implications for the geographical representation of the league and reduces the reach of the league into the major population centres in Ireland.
 
This season there are no Premier Division clubs in the second, third, and fourth largest cities in Ireland. Cork, Limerick, and Galway will all have teams in the First Division this season. This is a combined urban population of approximately 400,000 without a top flight team.
 
The relegation of Cork City, even with the relegation of Shelbourne from Dublin, and their replacement with Drogheda United and Longford Town means there is a greater concentration of clubs on the east coast. The map below shows the location of clubs in the Premier Division in 2020 and in the coming 2021 season. The red dots represent clubs in both; green are clubs only in 2020, and yellow dots represent clubs only in 2021.

The green line demonstrates that the west and south of the island are not represented in the 2021 Premier Division season.

​By calculating the distance between every club in the division (using Google Maps) the level of spatial dispersion can be assessed. In 2020 Cork City had to travel furthest on average than all of the other clubs with an average distance to all of the other clubs of 296km. This ‘honour’ now goes to the only remaining Munster club, Waterford FC, who will travel 246km on average this season. The presence of Derry City and Finn Harps reduce their average travel distances because of their proximity in the peripheral north-west of the island.
 
Six of the clubs (clustered around the greater Dublin area) have average distances of less than 130km this season. The average distance travelled has fallen from 190km to 158km. This means the concentration of east coast/Leinster clubs provides means that they have notably lower average distances than the average.

​The lack of clubs in the top flight from Sligo in the north-west right down the west and south coast as far as Waterford means the league is geographically lopsided. It will have to be seen how competitively lopsided the league will be on the pitch.

By Robbie Butler,

In the summer of 2017 I was asked to contribute to the Cork City FC match day programme. With University College Cork as the main sponsors of the club it was a nice fit and a chance to engage with the wider community in Cork.

I decided to touch on the general issue of championship uncertainty and the unique place that the League of Ireland holds when it comes to competitive balance. Within the article, which appeared in the match-day programme on the 9th of July 2017, I said the following:

"Often league success has been followed by a period of gradual decline, ending in financial distress and in some cases even relegation. The cycle of champions to relegation could take less than a decade to be complete. This rarely happens in other European leagues where followers will probably know Bayern Munich have just won their fifth consecutive league title, Juventus secured a sixth Seria A title, while Celtic have also been crowned champions for the past six seasons, and finished the current campaign unbeaten."

This may now become all too true for Cork City [again]. It has not taken a decade, but rather three years. The club remains bottom of the Premier Division in Ireland, and while relegation is still very much avoidable, less than 3 years ago the club won a historic league and cup double.

How can you go from double winners to relegation candidates in less than 36 months?

​In few (of any) other European league does a team that wins the domestic double face relegation 3 years afterwards.  And it is not the first time. Why does it happen here?

I have previously explored the issue here and here. One of the figures in the links is presented again below. It demonstrates how quickly League of Ireland champions can go into a spiral of decline 1 to 4 years post winning the league. ​Cork City's decline is even more rapid.

The rate of decline is even more apparent when compared to other European league winners from 2017 - the last time Cork City were champions.

The official UEFA 2017 Roll of Honour lists the league and cup champions that year for each nation member.

Should Cork City be relegated, the League of Ireland will be the only UEFA member where the 2017 league champions are no longer in the top division of their national league. This is an ongoing problem, and on which seems to be uniquely Irish. There is a need for the entire competition structure of the League of Ireland to be changed.

​As I have said previously, the removal of promotion and relegation would be the first positive step in helping what was once infamously called "the problem child" of Irish football.

By Robbie Butler

In our latest post “Economic Impact of Sport in the EU” John explored the economic impact of sport in the EU. It can be seen from the bubbles in the graphic that Ireland is lower than in most countries, with sport accounting for 1.68% of total employment and 1.03% GDP. The impact that the cessation of sports fixtures as a result of Covid-19 will therefore be smaller on the Irish economy than it is in many other EU states.

It is interesting to consider this further.

There is very little professional sport in Ireland. The most recent CSO sports module in 2013 found that almost all sport in Ireland is non-professional. Rugby reported the highest number of professional/semi-professional athletes at 5.1%. Other professional sports people in Ireland are found in dance and gym related activities. Then there are the elite individual athletes that are either funded through Sport Ireland or very successful in their sport and are household names e.g. Shane Lowry and Katie Taylor spring to mind.

After rugby, the only other team sport with sizable employment is soccer. However, just 0.2% of players here are paid. The domestic league probably employees about 400-500 players on professional and semi-professional contracts. Clubs are now in serious financial trouble as fixtures have ground to a halt. The primary source of income is gate receipts and one can only wonder what is going to happen to players and other staff in the coming weeks. (More on this next week).

It is interesting to compare the current fate of the League of Ireland with another Irish sport – horse racing. Horse racing is not considered a “sport” but rather an industry in Ireland for data purposes and probably employees about 3,500-5,000 people directly. Indirect employment is much higher. If direct employees were included, the number of professional sports people working in Ireland would jump considerably.

Horse racing continues in Ireland – behind closed doors. Today Dundalk goes ahead. Tomorrow Thurles. Down Royal is on Sunday. Naas Monday. Clonmel Tuesday. Dundalk again next Wednesday. And Cork next Thursday.

Irish soccer cannot proceed like this. The reason racing can is because gate receipts are not terribly important. The broadcasting agreement with Racing TV trumps this. Irish soccer has no major broadcasting agreement. It suffers badly because of this.
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The domestic game in Ireland will require support if it is to survive. This might mean State support through Sport Ireland or elsewhere. No domestic league means no national team. No Euro 2021. No World Cup in 2022.

By Robbie Butler

The 2019 SSE Airtricity League Of Ireland Premier Division kicks off tonight with reigning champions Dundalk's game at home to Sligo Rovers broadcast on free-to-air television. State broadcaster RTE have so far announced plans to screen 18 live games from the domestic league, with further games inevitable as the season progresses. 

As the national league recommences, talk turns to which teams are likely to be successful. The currently stability within the Premier Division is something this has never happened before in the near 100 year history of the league. Many are predicting that Dundalk will continue their dominance at domestic level, which has been broken just once since 2014. The current champions are odds on to retain their crown in 2019.

Whether the reduction in competition witnessed over the past 5 seasons (thanks to the success of Dundalk and Cork City), has caused a negative impact on interest is debateable. In fact, some may argue the opposite. 

Since the emergence of the Dundalk-Cork "duopoly" in 2014 demand for attendance at games does not seem to have been dramatically effected. Figures from last season (2018) show attendance levels of almost 36%, relative to stadium capacity. This is higher than any of the four season previous.

​The figure below chart this, and also presents total ticket sales, as a fraction of stadium capacity, for the six clubs that have appeared constantly in the Premier Division from 2014 to 2019. 

Total attendance as a percentage of total stadium capacity (thick black line) has risen from 28.5% in 2014 to 35.7%.

It is interesting to observe the drop in 2016 to 25.04%. What might be causing this? It seems to be largely driven be declines in attendance demand at the top clubs; Dundalk, Cork City and Shamrock Rovers.

​There are a number of possible explanations. The first is that Dundalk's domination was viewed as a reason not to go to games. The club won their third league title in a row in 2016. The Louth club also performed remarkably well in the Europa League that season, reaching the group stages. Maybe supporters became less attracted to the domestic game after being treated to Maccabi Tel Aviv, Zenit Saint Petersburg and AZ Alkmaar in Oriel Park?

​The upside is that demand has risen in 2017 and again in 2018. Let's hope interest in the domestic game can continue to build . This can only be good news for Irish football and its domestic clubs. 

By Robbie Butler

For those that watch the League of Ireland, it seems apparent (to me anyway) that competitive balance in the league has shifted in the past number of seasons.

On the 4th of November 2018 Cork City and Dundalk will meet for the 4th successive year in the FAI Cup Final. The meeting of the same two teams, four years in a row, has never happened in the FA Cup or Scottish Cup. This is also true of the Copa Del Rey and many other cups across Europe I have checked. 

Given the dynamics of a knock-out competition, and the probability of drawing a team at any stage, it is quite remarkable that Cork and Dundalk meet again. It is all the more remarkable that the last 3 meetings ended tied at the end of normal time, meaning neither has been beaten over 90 minutes in the FAI Cup since late summer 2014! This year's league table gives us further insight to the dominance of these two clubs, and how Dundalk's achievement in regaining the league title is somewhat of an outlier in recent years.

Since 2009 (ten full seasons) six clubs have been crowned champions of Ireland; Bohemians (2009), Shamrock Rovers (2010 and 2011); Sligo Rovers (2012); St Patrick's Athletic (2013) Dundalk (2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018) and Cork City (2017).

The charts below demonstrate how Dundalk and Cork have solidified their positions in recent years. 

It has taken Dundalk just one season to regain the league title. It remains to be seen if Cork City can do the same next year, but if they can it will be further evidence of a "Big 2" in Ireland. For the first time in the history of the League of Ireland, which commenced in 1921, the same two teams finished first and second (in any order) five years in a row. The previous record stood at three. 

​This is important in the context of what comes next. The other four winners of the League since 2009 have failed to regain their title. This is not unusual and I have previously addressed the issue here.

The graphic above presents league position for Bohemians, Shamrock Rovers, Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athletic from the season before winning the title to four years after. Following on from winning the League, all four then start a gradual slide. In the case of Bohs and St Pat's, this meant battling with relegation not long after winning the league.

What Dundalk and, to a lesser extent, Cork City are doing is not what we have been used to in recent years. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues. While such dominance will not be welcomed by fans of other clubs, it is in the interest of the league generally, in terms of improving UEFA coefficients and European club competition progression. 

The upcoming FAI Cup Final will be required viewing. If extra time is needed, both Dundalk and Cork will go close to 5 years without losing a FAI Cup game in normal time. I wonder has any other country ever had this experience? 

by Declan Jordan

At the business end of the Airtricity League of Ireland there is very little yet to be decided. Dundalk are on the verge of being champions, UCD won the First Division, and Bray Wanderers are effectively relegated from the Premier Division.
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It is also very likely that my own club, Limerick FC, will take part in the relegation/promotion play-off against as they seem destined to finish second from bottom of the Premier Division.

To find some hope I looked back over previous playoffs. It made for unhappy reading. The table below shows the outcome of the last 11 relegation/promotion playoffs (there were no playoffs in 2017 and 2008).

In the last 11 years, the First Division team won the playoff. The odds would seem stacked against Limerick this season. The remarkable success of the promoted teams may reflect the momentum going into the game, where from a First Division gets a boost from achieving a play-off place while the Premier Division team is deflated by not avoiding a play-off place.

This may be a similar effect in the English Championship where the promotion play-offs are contested by teams finishing third to sixth at the end of the season. In the last 10 seasons, the third place team was promoted 50% of the time.

by Declan Jordan

Today sees the return of the Airtricity League of Ireland for a new season. It seems there is hardly a season goes by in this league where there hasn't been a change of format, and so it is with this season. The Premier Division is once again reduced to 10 teams for the first time since 2011. This will be the sixth season out of sixteen since the move to summer football that there have been 10 teams in the Premier Division.

For fans in Munster there is also the added excitement of three clubs from the province in the League for the first time since 1994, when Limerick, Cork, and Cobh were in the top division.

This season Cork City (the champions), Limerick FC, and Waterford FC will play each other four times in the league. Clubs from these cities were mainstays in the top tier of the league right up to the early 1990s and it is a common complaint about the league that Dublin clubs have dominated in the last two decades or so. There are well-founded worries about the viability of clubs in the provincial cities because of that Dublin dominance.

However, a look at the experience of the league since the move to summer football in 2003 suggests that Dublin dominance may be waning. The table below shows the spread of top tier clubs by province, including a column for Dublin. The location of the champions is indicated by a box for each season, with a tick when the champion was based in the capital. Note that I have included Bray Wanderers as a Dublin team, which might not make too many Seagull supporters happy, but most functional region factors would suggest they are within the Greater Dublin Area (not least its connection to the Dublin by light rail). 

The data suggests a decline in the dominance of Dublin clubs, indicated by the lack of a champion since 2013 and a reduction in clubs from Dublin in the top tier. It seems there is a concentration within Dublin among a smaller group of clubs - Shamrock Rovers, Bohemian FC, St Patricks Athletic, and Bray Wanderers. In the early to mid part of the last decade there were clubs that have since failed to keep up (Shelbourne and UCD) or gone out of business (Dublin City, Sporting Fingal). Cabinteely joined the league in 2015 but have not come near to promotion in that time. Is it a coincidence that Dublin football clubs have slipped away just as the Dublin gaelic football team has dominated their sport?

Perhaps too much shouldn't be read into the last couple of seasons for Dublin clubs, as the league has been dominated by Dundalk and Cork City. The former were champions for 3 seasons and runners-up last year. The latter were runners-up for 3 seasons before their breakthrough last season. These clubs have been able to reinvest money earned from European competition and player transfers to the UK to maintain their hold on the best playing talent in Ireland and keep ahead of any chasing pack.

The distribution of clubs outside of Dublin, and greater success for those clubs, can only be good for the sustainability of the league. It remains to be seen if Dublin clubs can be revitalised to challenge again. The sports economist in me wants to see strong Dublin clubs, because competitive balance and regional balance are good for the league. The Limerick FC fan in me however wants to see Munster dominance for a while.
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By Robbie Butler

While most national football leagues are progressing toward their halfway point, the League of Ireland is currently in close season. This is because the league is structured around a February to October schedule, more commonly referred to as 'summer soccer. Yesterday the 2018 SSE Airtricity League format was confirmed.

As is often the case, rule changes have been implemented. Much of the changes have taken placed in the 2nd tier of Irish football (First Division). This league will consist of 10 teams in 2018 (there had been between 8 and 10 for the past number of years) and involves an extended playoff scenario at the end of the season. 

To quote the source above directly it says:
"The champions of the First Division will be guaranteed automatic promotion to the Premier Division where they will replace the team which finishes 10th in the top tier". This is standard practice.

The big change revolves around the 4th placed team where:  "the 2nd/3rd/4th placed clubs will go into the promotion/relegation play-offs at the end of the season. The team which finishes fourth will play the team which finishes third and the winner of that tie will face the team which finishes second. The winner of that tie will then play the team which finishes ninth in the Premier Division in the final promotion/relegation play-off, with all play-offs played over two legs".

The reason the 4th place team is now 'lucky' is because 2nd and 3rd placed teams in seasons past (not the 2017 season) had entered a similar playoff. 

Why might this have happened? Economic theory can help.

The First Division is effectively a closed system at one end (the bottom). In recent years, clubs have not been relegated to regional leagues (some have left voluntarily). This brings with it a certain set of incentives.

With 10 teams in a league it is important to keep all interested as long as possible. Relegation does this for teams fighting at the bottom. Remove the threat of relegation and teams could simply lose interest mid-season if only the top two teams were promoted. Offering the 4th placed team a shot at promotion should keep lots of clubs interested throughout the season. For example, a club in 6th, 7th or even 8th with five games to go might still be only a handful of points off 4th spot and a possible play-off. 

Hopefully, this move will increase interest and activity in the all too often forgotten league in this country. 

By Robbie Butler

A number of years ago Declan Jordan wrote a piece on this blog that offered a radical proposal for change in the League of Ireland. Declan highlighted that the League is certainly not averse to change. We have addressed this issue here and outline the multitude of changes League organisers have implemented in order to improve the domestic game.

Yet again, the League will change in structure for the 2018 Season. The current 12 team Premier Division and 8 team 1st Division (2nd tier) will become two leagues of 10 teams from next March. This means three teams will be relegated from the Premier Division and one team promoted from the 1st Division next month.

Below is a screenshot of the current standing in the League from teams 6 to 12. ​While it is unlikely Bohemians will be relegated, all clubs from Limerick down could be playing in the second tier of Irish football next season.

As is often the way in the League, three of the teams fighting relegation have been national champions in the past decade; Drogheda (2007), Sligo Rover (2012) and St Patrick's Athletic (2013).

All three have also been runners-up in 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012. It is hard to find a comparable league in the world, with such a quick cycle of ‘rise and decline’. Sadly, this is the reality for most League of Ireland clubs.

It might now be worth considering whether the open-system (promotion and relegation) is appropriate for the League. Do the likes of Drogheda, Sligo and St Pat's need to be punished for poor performance this season? Absolutely not. In fact, they require the opposite.

While the open-system does result in some excitement for fans critics rightly suggest that it leads to financial instability and underinvestment in capital. Clubs simply survive week-to-week, hoping to pay the wage bill, and neglect long-term capital projects such as stadium expansion, training ground improvements, etc.
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The open-system in Ireland simply copies that of other leagues. It is time to think differently about our league. A single division might be a step in the right direction. The current scenario of punishing failure is certainly not the answer.

By Robbie Butler  
                                                                                                                                           
The 2017 League of Ireland Premier Division is drawing to a close. Unlike almost all other UEFA leagues, the fixture list is organised around a March to October schedule, colloquially known as Summer Soccer.
 
With just five games left in the Premier Division League Table has a familiar look. Last year’s 2nd placed team, Cork City are 14 points clear of reigning champions Dundalk. Dundalk are a further 12 points clear of the chasing pack.

While this would not be anything out of the ordinary for many European leagues, for the League of Ireland it is quite a rare occurrence. Should Cork City and Dundalk finish first and second (in any order) it will be the first time in the history of the League, now nearly 100 years old, that the same teams finished in the top two positions in four consecutive seasons.

A closer look at the history of the League of Ireland demonstrates just how unusual this is. The league is somewhat of an outlier in a European context. Between 1963 and 2012 (50 seasons) the league had a higher number of champions (15 clubs) than any other European league. The most successful club over this period (Shamrock Rovers) also won the fewest number of league titles (just 7) when compared to the most successful clubs in every other European League.

From this information we can conclude that the League of Ireland is very well balanced and ultra-competitive, relative to other European league. But what might this mean?

Often league success has been followed by a period of gradual decline, ending in financial distress and in some cases even relegation. The cycle of champions to relegation could take less than a decade to be complete. This rarely happens in other European leagues where followers will probably know Bayern Munich  won their fifth consecutive league title in May 2017, Juventus secured a sixth Seria A title, while Celtic have also been crowned champions for the past six seasons, and finished the 2016/17 campaign unbeaten.

This sort of stability is not something you associate with the League of Ireland. While some argue that it makes football boring, the current dominance of two teams in the League can only be a good thing generally. Repeated dominance will result in continued participation in the qualifying stages of the Champions League and Europa League. Anecdotal evidence suggests experience and repeated opportunity results in a greater chance of success.

The experiences of both Cork City and Dundalk over recent seasons can only help during European adventures next summer. Success at this level raises the League of Ireland's UEFA league co-efficient. A virtuous cycle will result, with success breeding more success.
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 An earlier version of this piece appeared in the Cork City match-day programme on the 9th of July 2017.