By John Considine

Tomorrow Kilkenny and Tipperary face-off in a replay of the All-Ireland hurling final.  It is very difficult to predict who will emerge victorious.  Most of us will provide a range of reasons why we believe one or other of the teams will be successful.  After the event we can often convince ourselves that we saw something coming.  However, those journalists who commit their predictions to print don’t have that escape route.
 
One such journalist is Emmet Ryan who writes a column called “The Spread” that features every week in The Sunday Business Post.  The column examines the betting associated with various sporting events.  Emmet puts his head on the block each week by providing the reader with a suggested bet.  Unfortunately for those following his GAA advice, his success rate for the latter stages of the All-Ireland series in hurling and football has not been good.
 
Emmet suggested punters go for a Kilkenny win in the hurling final at odds of 4/5.  The sides ended level.  Last week he advocated the selection of Donegal at 8/11.  Kerry won and the bet went down.  Except for the Dublin –Donegal football semi-final, he had little success at the semi-finals stage (I don’t have a record of his prediction for the Dublin-Donegal game).  In the hurling semi-finals he suggested the punters should take Limerick at 5/2 and Cork at evens.  Kilkenny and Tipperary triumphed.  In the drawn football game between Kerry and Mayo, Emmet opted for a Mayo win at 10/11.
 
It is to Emmet’s credit that one can read his columns after the event and believe the result should have gone the way he predicted.
 
I performed little better in my prediction for the drawn Kilkenny-Tipperary game.  My prediction was made with approximately 60 minutes of the 70 minutes elapsed.  With Kilkenny 4 points ahead of Tipperary, I turned to my nephew and said “put the house on a Tipperary win”.  I was convinced it was inevitable.  Fortunately, no money was wagered or lost.
 
My prediction for tomorrow’s game has to do with the attendance.  The table below shows that the replays of 2012 and 2013 attracted more spectators than the drawn games (although smaller TV audiences).  In 2012 the replay was on a Sunday.  Last year the replay was a Saturday evening game - just like tomorrow.  One of the reasons for the greater numbers at the replays is the decision of the GAA to reduce ticket prices for the replays.  This limited evidence suggests the attendance tomorrow will be greater than it was three weeks ago.  I'm not so sure.  Prior to the drawn game there were stories of tickets being returned to Croke Park (see how tickets are distributed for sale here). The availability of tickets in the surrounds of Croke Park three weeks ago suggests the demand for another Kilkenny-Tipperary game was down on previous years.  A cracking drawn game may restore the desire of the fans.  However, I'm predicting a decline in the numbers attending tomorrow.

By John Considine

In June the British Journal of Sports Medicine (BJSM) published a paper on the cost-effectiveness of removing body checking from youth ice hockey.  The paper by Sarah Lacny and colleagues compared the injuries, and associated costs, of two Canadian regions.  Quebec banned body-checking in ice-hockey (11-12 years) three decades ago whereas Alberta only change in line with national changes in recent years.  Not surprisingly, the authors found that there were less injuries and costs in Quebec than in Alberta.  These are important findings for a country where "sports injuries accounts for 66% of youth injuries".

Possibly less important, but nonetheless interesting, is the difference brought about by professionalization in rugby union.  Another 2014 BJSM paper examines the injuries to the shoulders of French Rugby Union players for 2008-2013.  The paper presents a fascinating range of comparisons.  For example, professional rugby players that suffer a shoulder injury during a tackle with an opponent differ from non-professionals.  In professional rugby it is the tackler that is likely to suffer whereas it is the tackled player that suffers more injuries outside the professional game.  Yohan Bohn (Racing-Metro 92) and his co-authors show that the incidence and severity of shoulder injuries increases with age.  The relative importance of shoulder injuries also vary with gender.

In terms of positions on the rugby team, the positions most likely to suffer shoulder injuries are third row (back row) forwards, front row forwards, and centres.  The presentation of the injuries by positions is slightly misleading because there are three front row forwards, three back row forwards, but only two centres.  Therefore, it is not surprising to find that the positions with the lowest incidence of injuries have only one player - full back, scrum-half, and fly half.  It is a pity the injuries were not listed by player number/position for all fifteen players.  This is done for front-row forwards and it shows that players wearing number 1 have the highest shoulder incidence among front row forwards.  Next up is the player wearing number 3 and then the player carrying number 2.

The player carrying number 2 is the hooker.  Number 1 is known as a loose-head prop and number 3 is known as a tight-head prop.  As the players lock heads, the hooker and tight-head prop have an opponents head to either side.  The loose-head prop is bound by only one other player.

At scrum time the hooker is positioned in the middle of the three front row forwards as they collide with the opposition.  It seems this position protects the hooker from injury at scrum time according to a third BJSM paper.  Alison Taylor, Simon Kemp, Grant Trewartha and Keith Strokes examined scrum injury risk in English professional rugby.  The hooker sustained 15% of the reported scrum injuries.  However, the average for the other two front row forwards was 36.5% each.  This is a massive 88% of reported scrum injuries falling on 3 of the 8 players involved in the scrum.  The most interesting fact of all is the coincidence between injury, player position and whether the scrum collapsed or not.  Almost 91% of the injuries to loose-head prop forwards were associated with collapsed scrums.  By contrast, 62.5% of injuries to tight-head props, and 83.3% of injuries to hookers, occurred when the scrum did not collapse.  As to the reason for this difference, the authors call for more research.  It is a pity they did not speculate on the reasons.

By John Considine

If I did not force myself away from the television then I could watch hours of coverage of the major cycling tours.  I can't fully explain the attraction.  Maybe it is the scenery, the blur of colour, or the fact that I became hooked when Irishmen like Sean Kelly and Stephen Roche were at the top of the sport.  Whatever the reason, there are some days that provide compelling viewing.  Last Saturday was one such day.  The Vuelta a Espana entered its second last stage.  In all probability the winner would be determined on the Saturday.  Sunday's final stage was a relatively harmless time trial - although the crash of Nairo Quintana a week earlier in another time trial meant anything could happen.

The last 12km of the race featured a gruelling category one climb.  As the race arrived at this point the top five riders in general classification were at the front.  It was now or never for each to improve their position.  Each rider wanted to improve their position but going to the front risked doing the work for those they were seeking to overhaul.  Fifth placed Fabio Aru did not seem in a position to attack and third placed, Alejandro Valverde, is not a noted mountain top finisher.  Fourth placed Joaquim Rodriguez was the first to mount a serious attack.  However, he was hauled back and passed.  Then it was the turn of second placed Chris Froome to make his bid for glory.  Froome attacked and race leader Alberto Contador tucked in behind him.  Then as the finish approached, Contador left Froome in his wake and went on to win the stage (and effectively the Vuelta).

The top 5 in general classification finished in that order on the climb to Puerto de Ancares.  It was fascinating to see the rider decide when they needed to attack the position of the man in front of them on general classification.  And, it was equally fascinating to see the rider being attacked see off the challenge before attempting a similar strategy against the rider ahead of him.

An interesting aside on the incentives faced by cyclists arose from the Stage-20 commentary provided by Sean Kelly on EuroSport.  Kelly and his co-commentator were discussing how cyclists tend to get back on their bikes as quickly as possible after a fall.  I was surprised that Kelly compared this approach to that of footballers.  It is slightly disappointing to find people from one sport complaining about those in another sport.  I was disappointed that one of the sports people I most admire was taking such a line.  My faith was restored in Kelly's very next sentence when he pointed out that cyclists get back on their bikes because there is little to be gained by staying on the ground.  It was clear that Kelly was not complaining about footballers.  Instead he was pointing out how both cyclists and footballer react to the incentives they face.

By John Considine

Reflecting the slowdown in the Irish economy, sponsorship of Irish horse racing by industry declined dramatically between 2007 and 2010. The Horse Racing Ireland factbook shows that the 2010 figure for race sponsorship by all industries is down almost 60% on the 2007 figure.  The collapse in sponsorship by the construction sector is more dramatic with the 2010 figure showing a 95% decline on its 2007 amount.  The construction industry contribution peaked at 13.3% of the total sponsorship in 2005 but it has been below 1% for both 2012 and 2013.

Exchequer tax revenue over the same 2007-2010 period also showed a dramatic decline with the 2010 figure down 33% on the 2007 figure of over €47bn.  It also seems that the contribution of the construction/property sector to the Exchequer showed an even greater decline.  One of the sources of Exchequer tax revenue is Stamps (a charge for "stamping" official documentation).  In 2007 the vast majority of tax revenue under this heading arose from property conveyancing.  As the demand for property declined so to did stamp duty (although not all property transfers are subject to the tax).  Exchequer tax revenue from stamps dropped by 70% between 2007 and 2010.

It would be nice to believe that the recovery of race sponsorship in 2012 and 2013 is due to a turnaround in the economic fortunes of the Irish economy.  Unfortunately this may not be the case as the majority of the increase comes from media sponsorship.  Media sponsorship was €107,250 in 2011.  It jumped to €737,494 in 2012 and was €736,438 in 2013.  A note on the 2012 amount says it contains SIS sponsorship.  The improvement may be smaller than it looks in the chart below but it is heading in the right direction.

By John Considine

Yesterday was a significant day in Irish sport.  The international soccer team played the first game of the 2016 European Championships against Georgia while Kilkenny and Tipperary played in the All-Ireland hurling final.  The eleven Irish soccer players that started the game carried a range of squad numbers on their back, e.g. Stephen Ward wore the number 17.  The fifteen players that started on each of the hurling teams had numbers 1-15, although not all of the players started in the positions their numbers indicated.

One of the keys to understanding the significance of the numbers the players wear is the duration of the "contract" between the player and the team.  All three teams are representative teams.  The Irish players represent their country while the hurlers represent their respective counties.  Yesterday, they were in the team/squad for that particular game.  It is unlikely that the team/squad composition for the next soccer international or the replay of the All-Ireland hurling final will be the same.

The numbers are placed on the shirts to faciliate identification of the players by the referee, the spectators at the game, those watching on television, and those commentators who are relaying the game to those not in attendance.  The sporting organisations also leverage the numbering by selling match programmes that list the player numbers for spectators - this is a relatively larger source of revenue for the GAA given its stage of commercial development.  Unlike the situation in the GAA, the shirts of each soccer player also carried that player's name.  For an international soccer international, like yesterday's game against Georgia, the prime reason is to facilitate identification of the player so that particular player can be separated from his colleagues.  However, when these soccer players return to their clubs the name on the shirt helps with another form of identification that is important commercially.  The replica kit market is based on the consumer identifying with the team and the player.  Imagine a parent trying to convince their Liverpool supporting kid that another red shirt (Manchester United) suits them just as well.  Very few economists would suggest that Liverpool and Manchester United shirt are in the same market (and the UK competition authorities agree - see previous post here).  The kid might also identify with a particular player.  Again the parent would struggle getting the kid to accept the number 24 (with or without Joe Allen's surname) if the kid wants the number 8 jersey of Steven Gerrard.

The squad numbers assigned to the Irish players allowed the Irish manager to name his team closer to the start of the game than might otherwise be the case (as did the rule governing the naming of teams).  In an interview on Saturday, Martin O'Neill explained how it was not his practice to name the team too early.  Where a team is announced early then it might hand a strategic advantage to the opposition.  Where it is believed the opposition obtain the team unofficially then it could be seen as breaching the rules (see Cardiff's complaint against Crystal Palace here).

Assigning numbers to players in the GAA is becoming more strategic/tactical.  Yesterday, all the players did not lineout in the positions their numbers would indicate.  The teams were also announced closer to game-day than would have been the case 20 years ago.  In recent years Kilkenny announce their team on the Friday before the game (as most people know Kilkenny do strategy/tactics but they differ from most in that they don't make a big deal of it). The fact that the players did carry numbers 1-15 probably reflects the fact that history matters.  Kilkenny and Tipperary are two of the top three hurling counties in terms of All-Ireland success.  It is harder to justify changing something that is working.  For successful counties a change might be interpreted as fear of the opposition.  In two weeks time Kerry play Donegal in the All-Ireland football final.  Kerry are the most successful football county.  They will probably line out 1-15 (although they have been less likely to do so recently).  Donegal are more likely to have a number from outside 1-15 starting the game.  Donegal have 2 All-Ireland title whereas Kerry have 36.  The second title was secured a couple of years ago under a manager well versed in strategic and tactical innovation.  That manager is still in charge.  We have less than two weeks to see what happens.

By John Considine

Last month the Financial Times produced a Special Report on the state of golf.  In the space of six pages, less the space devoted to adverts, the newspaper produced a wide ranging overview of the game.  It included an examination of the environmental issue in California, the influence of social media, and the use of online simulators.  The major issue discussed was the drop in participation in mature markets, the possible causes, and potential solutions.

The lead article by Roger Blitz acknowledged the positives for the game.  These include the growing TV revenues, steady viewership figures, well rewarded elite players, recognisable new markets, and the fact that the game will feature in the 2016 Olympics.  Yet, the article was titled 'Sport stuck in a rut has to get a grip on its future' (allowing for the fact that the title may well have been chosen by a sub-editor).  According to Blitz, the rut that golf is stuck in appears to be its image problem.  It is viewed as "boring".  And, the reason it is stuck in that rut is because of the power structure of the sport.  It is run by amateur players in charge of governing bodies and there is a problem with competition between the US and European tours.

Another problem that golf has is its format.  Richard Gillis documents how those less time constrained over 65 averaged a round a week whereas those under 30 averaged only seven rounds a year.  Time constraints are one of the problems contributing to a massive decrease in participation.  Gillis quotes the head of the National Golf Foundation in the US saying one six golfer were lost to the game over that last decade.  The fall in participation is one of the reasons for a drop in sales of golf equipment.  An increase in supply has resulted in large decreases in price.  Ed Stack, chief executive of Dick's Sporting Goods, says that in the space of 20 months drivers that were selling for €299 are now retailing for €99.  As a result, Dick's Sporting Goods announced it would lay off about 500 PGA-qualified professionals it employs to sell golf equipment. 

The drop off in participation in primarily amongst males in mature markets.  Sarah Stirk explains how the female market is growing - although not a quickly as it might.  One of the problems attracting female golfer is the discrimination against females when it comes to access.  While it is acknowledged that things are improving, it is also clear that there is a distance to equality.

There are clear growth opportunities in less developed markets.  According to Samantha Pearson there are only 120 golf courses in Brazil whereas a country of comparable size (the US) has 15,000 courses.  However, the difficulties constructing the course for the Olympics in 2016 could be symptomatic of problems in growing these markets.

There are many interesting articles in the Financial Times Special Report but the one I liked best was the one by Richard Gillis titled 'A lament for the lost art of shot-making'.  The title gives a good indication of what is in the article.  One of the fascinating observations by Fred Couples is the change in driving distance over the last 30 years.  He earned the nickname "boom, boom" when he was averaging a driving distance of 280 yards.  Nowadays, he says, the game passes by those who don't hit it 320 yards.  This observation is consistent with a previous post on this blog (here).  To what extent is this improvement due to human improvement or improvement in the equipment?  If this improvement manifested itself in cycling then it would be attributed to drugs.  Maybe golf does not have as big an image problem as other sports.

By John Considine

How important is psychological pressure in sport?  One examination of the phenomenon is presented in Beautiful Game Theory written by Ignacio Palacios-Huerta.  The economist is mainly concerned with the psychological pressure induced by the order in which penalty kicks are taken in soccer.  Using over 40 years of data, from a range on international and national competitions, Palacios-Huerta finds that 60.6% of the time the team that shoots first wins.

In an attempt to get a deeper understanding of the psychological pressures at play, he reviews the literature on the impact of context in the performance of non-strategic tasks such as free throws in basketball, putting in golf and weightlifting.  The literature demonstrates that basketballers perform differently depending on whether their team is ahead or not.  Golfer putt better for par than birdie.

Palacios-Huerta then goes on to consider the implications of the sequence of tasks.  He compares the success rate of the players initiating the competition in penalty kicks and tennis tie-breakers.  In penalty kicks the sequence is ABABABABAB where as in tennis it is ABBAABBAA.  The success rate in soccer is 61% whereas it is 54% in tennis.  He then tested the Prouhet-Thue-Morse (PTM) sequence (ABBABAAB) using players from La Liga.  The success rate of the team taking the first penalty kick drops to 51%.

Given the fact that the team that shoots first wins 61% of the penalty kick competitions, then one would imagine that players that win the coin-toss would decide to shoot first.  Unfortunately, the data on who wins the coin-toss, and their subsequnt choices, is not available.  However, a survey of professional players reveals that virtually all players know the benefits of shooting first.  Why then would an international captain decide to go second?  This is what happened in two international games between Italy and Spain.  One game was in 2008 and the other in 2013.  In both cases the captain was a goalkeeper!

By John Considine

A previous post on this blog outlined the increase in the demand for Level 8 sports related courses at Irish educational institutions (here).  Today, the 2014 points requirements have been announced (round 1).  There are some relatively small changes in the points required for a number of courses.  The 2014 points required and the difference from 2013 are listed below.

The data is taken from the CAO website (here).  The * signifies that not all applicants at this point level were offered the course and the # signifies an interview may be required.

By John Considine

Last September both All-Ireland finals ended with questions about the amount of time played.  In the hurling final, the fourth official put up the board to say there would be at least 2 added minutes.  When the clock ticked over into the third minute, Cork led.  The referee allowed the game to proceed.  Clare scored an equaliser and went on to win the replay.  In the football final, Mayo were two points down when the minimum added time allocated was up.  Mayo also had a free kick.  The free-taker opted for a point in the belief that the referee would add some more time and Mayo would have a chance to get an equaliser.  Unfortunately for Mayo very little playing time was added after their point.

Last Sunday week, Mayo were on the other side of a similar decision when Cork were two points down with a free-kick.  Cork opted for a point but the game ended when the ball was put back into play after a Cork point.  Cork pointed to a consultation with the referee that took place before the free-kick was taken.  Following the game there were calls for the regulation of time played to be taken from the referee.

High profile incidents like these are likely to change the way the GAA regulate playing time.  In a previous post David Butler explained how one such high profile incident, in a game between Aston Villa and Stoke City, resulted in the introduction of injury or added time (here).  Another high profile incident that changed the rules of a sport occured in US college basketball on March 7th, 1982.  The game was between North Carolina and Virginia.

"... by the end of the game, the fans were booing, the players on both sides were disappointed, and both coaches were taking flack for thinking too much and playing too little.  With seven minutes and thirty-three seconds left to play and his team and his team ahead by one point, North Carolina's coach, the legendary Dean Smith, told his team to play keep away.  With Virginia's coach Terry Holland keeping his squad close to the basket in a zone defense, the North Carolina players were free to dribble and pass and stall and do everything but shoot.  As the game clock ticked away, and a glorious game turned foul, the chorus of boos rose in crescendo beyond the rafters of the Greensboro Coliseum.  ... The ACC championship wasn't the only "slowdown" game that year where fans booed; it was just the biggest."

The above description is taken from the beginning of a 2013 book called Madmen, Intellectuals, and Academic Scribblers written by Wayne Leighton and Edward Lopez.  Leighton & Lopez go on to explain how the profile of the North Carolina versus Virginia played a role in the NCAA introducing a shot clock.  That is why it is significant that the timing incidents in the three GAA games above occurred in such high profile games.  The GAA has already experimented with the used of a clock for the male game similar to the one used in the female game.  In time we will discover if the recent incident will prove pivotal.

Madmen, Intellectuals, and Academic Scribblers is not a sports economics book.  Rather, it is a book about how economic ideas matter for political change.  The sporting incident is used as an example of how, when people are unhappy by the outcomes produced within the existing rules, they set about changing the rules of the political and economic game.  Leighton & Lopez use the sporting analogy because they argue that sports are controlled experiments in human behaviour.  Many would agree.  It is a book worth reading for the economists among those who read this blog.

By John Considine

When Minister Michael Ring launched the Wild Atlantic Way (WAW) last February, it was pointed out how it included a wide range of outdoor and sporting activities.  On its website, Failte Ireland said it included 150 golf courses, 17 trails and 50 looped walks.  The Golf Courses include Ballybunion - a favourite of US Ryder Cup Captain, Tom Watson.  The WAW also included the Galway Greenway project that is to include 78km of traffic-free cycling.  The provision of venues for recreational cycling complements the cycle-to-work scheme introduced in 2009 and continued by the current government (see previous post here).

Included in the 159 Discover Points are Skellig Rock View, Skelligs View Point, Little Skellig and Great Skellig.  So popular are the Skelligs that they have attracted some intergallactic travellers (at least of the Hollywood kind).  This week filming of the Star Wars movie started on the Skelligs (see Irish Times report here).  The idea of selling the WAW via the small screen was also an idea put forward by the Kerry politician Brendan Griffin who proposed inviting BBC's Top Gear to film along the 2,400km route.  While Top Gear have yet to confirm any such plans, there has been a notable success with Belgium's biggest holiday programme due to start filming soon (see Irish Examiner report here).

While the rebranding of tourist facilities and associated outdoor activities has been well received on the whole, there have been a few questions raised about the cost of the inititive to the public purse.  In the last week, there has been an eyebrow or two raised at the cost of signage for the route (here).  A total of €2.75m for 2,400km.  If it increases participation in physical activity and outdoor sports it may be money well spent.