By Gary Burns

Recently I spoke about the structural change in the American Heavyweight boxing division and in particular its decline in recent decades. Below is an extension of this analysis.

The fall-off in American success is seismic when viewed in a historical context. By the mid 2000’s fighters from the former Soviet Bloc began to dominate the division. The current top 10 contenders for the heavyweight crown, according to The Ring Magazine, contains one American. Five are from former Soviet Bloc countries or Soviet satellite states.

So why has this happened?

Perhaps looking at the calibre of Heavyweight American amateur fighters coming through the ranks may provide some clues. Looking down through former American Olympic medallists who later held world champion status in the professional Heavyweight Division, the names of Floyd Patterson, Cassius Clay, Joe Frazier, George Foreman, Leon Spinks, Evander Holyfield, Riddick Bowe and Roy Jones Jr all appear. In the amateur ranks, Professional Heavyweight fighters traditionally come from the Light Heavyweight, Heavyweight and Super Heavyweight amateur categories. At the Olympics, the United States has not won a medal in the Light Heavyweight category since Athens
2004.

In the Heavyweight Division only 2 bronze medals have been won since Atlanta 1996. The last gold medal was in Seoul 1988. In the Super Heavyweight division the last medal was won in Seoul 1988, silver for Riddick Bowe. While this trend is indicative of the entire American Olympic boxing team, from casual observation performance at the Olympics appears to be a crude indicator of future professional success.

In Los Angeles 1984 for example, the American team won 9 gold medals. In London 2012 the Americans went with a team of 12 but only won 1 gold medal, 0 silver and 0 bronze. This gold medal was won by Clarissa Shields in the women’s Middleweight category. 
 
Whilst maybe a crude predictor of future success, The Games prepares athletes at an elite level as they are fighting the best available opponents from other countries. The next major Heavyweight championship bout is the long overdue Wladimir Klitschko vs. Alexander Povetkin of Russia; both are former Olympic gold medallists.

Remarkably, the heavier boxing divisions in America have regressed to a relatively greater degree when compared to other  weight divisions.The fall in success at the Olympics has not adversely affected American performance in the smaller professional weight divisions. Of the 4 main belts, WBC, WBA, IBF, WBO and including interim belts, Americans hold 41% of titles between Lightweight and Light-Heavyweight but 88% of the two heaviest divisions, Cruiserweight and Heavyweight are occupied by Europeans.

Except for the Heavyweight division, American boxing is in good health. This makes the fall in success of the Heavyweight Americans even more of an anomaly. Several explanatory reasons have been suggested to account for this including the already mentioned growth of European and, in particular, former Soviet/Communist states. Furthermore the fall in American success in the division has been attributed to a reduction in participation rates of young black Americans, traditionally from poorer socio-economic backgrounds.

An increase in educational opportunities perhaps, or an increase in the numbers going into other American sports such as American Football, Basketball and Baseball, all of which require athletes of large size and stature has further
hindered the enrolment rates of boxing. Many Heavyweight Americans come from a different sporting background and only turn to boxing when their ambitions are not met with their desired sport.  Finally, reduced funding in a competitive American sports industry has been cited as a cause .

Should Americans interested in the division be worried?

Heavyweight boxing has always had its apocalyptic predictions. The 1920’s world champion Gene Tunney lamented boxing’s demise when Cassius Clay and Sonny Liston locked horns in 1964. Bob Arum described the Heavyweight landscape as “waiting for the old fat bums to disappear” in 1985 just before Mike Tyson ripped through the division bringing a dangerous, compelling edge to the weight class.  Despite the dark days, there is hope for American Heavyweights.

Deontay Wilder has just overcome his most difficult opponent to date, Sergei Liakhovich, to take his record to 29-O with all victories coming by way of Knockout or Technical Knockout and is an exciting American Heavyweight prospect. 

For now the Heavyweight division has its home in the stadiums of Poland, Germany and Russia. Madison Square Garden and Las Vegas may have to wait a while longer for the return of a title once revered as the greatest crowning glory in all of sports;  Heavyweight Champion of the World.

By Gary Burns

Through greats like Jack Johnson, Jack Dempsey, Joe Louis and Rocky Marciano, America has dominated the heavyweight boxing division like no other country since the introduction of the Marquess of Queensbury rules in the late 19th century. Some champions like Max Schmelling, Primo Carnera and Ingemar Johansson provided a European flavour to proceedings in the first half of the 20th century but were largely the exception to American supremacy.

The American dominance of the division was at a high point between the 1960's and 1980's, with a new era of greats becoming household names. These included Ali, Frazier, Foreman, Spinks, Holmes and, of course, Mike Tyson. Today however, American Heavyweight boxing is a shadow of its former self.

So what went wrong?

Some boxing purists look at the knockout of Mike Tyson by James Buster Douglas in February 1990 as a watershed moment, with this fight spelling the end of the Heavyweight Divisions glory days but data collected on the Pay Per View numbers and gate receipts of the most successful PPV Heavyweights fights would suggest otherwise.

While I couldn’t acquire a full dataset on gate receipts the table below indicates the popularity of the division during the 1990’s. This is in no small part due to the presence of American fighters in all of the top ten fights by PPV numbers.

However a shift in the structure of the division, away from American domination, began to occur in the 1990’s. This decade saw increasing numbers of non-American boxers such as Axel Schultz, Andrew Golota, David Tua and Francois Botha become prominent. In particular, British fighters started to challenge the supremacy of their American counterparts. Frank Bruno, Herbie Hide and Lennox Lewis all had varying degrees of success during this period.

Americans still accounted for the lions share of top ten contenders for the Heavyweight crown but it was a Brit, Lennox Lewis, who began to dominate the division by the late 1990’s and into the 2000’s.

By September 2002 Hasim Rahman had stunned Lewis and Chris Byrd won a version of the title against Evander Holyfield in December of the same year. America's fall from grace continued as Shannon Briggs became the last American to hold world champion status when he lost to Russian Sultan Ibragimov in June 2007.  

American success in the division meant that historically the audience predominately came from that side of the Atlantic. It would be interesting to see the most recent data and ask whether the disappearance of this success has led to a fall in interest from its traditional target audience, the American public? By the mid 2000’s the main broadcaster of PPV boxing in the states,HBO, had at certain times refused to show the Klitschko brothers fights. HBO sports President Ross Greenburg cited a largely disinterested American public, poor quality opponents and the fact the fights were in Europe and would not fit into prime time scheduling (if not time delayed) as reasons for the move. HBO and Showtime have showed some of the Klitschko brothers fights but not on PPV, hinting at the lack of confidence they may have in sales of the fights.

This was a guest contribution by Gary Burns - Gary holds a degree in economics and has made various contributions both to print and online media on Boxing

By Gary Burns

On the 14th of September, Floyd Mayweather Jr will take on Saul Alvarez at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada at a catchweight limit of 152lbs. The fight is major box office business and to the general public the weight limit of the fight is of little consequence. To Floyd Mayweather Jr the fight at a catchweight is indicative of his decision-making in the latter part of his career.
 
Floyd Mayweather jr is undoubtedly the elite boxer of his generation as he is undefeated after 44 professional bouts and was the highest paid athlete according to Forbes in 2012, earning a reported $85 million (knocking Tiger Woods off the top earners spot for the first time since 2002). Added to this, he was involved in the biggest Pay Per View of all time in 2007 when he fought Oscar De La Hoya.

While Mayweather’s decisions in his personal life have recently landed him in prison, when it comes to making decisions in the ring, concerning which opponent to take on, he is the shrewdest operator of them all. His choices here have allowed him to surpass his peers and have cemented his legacy as an undoubted future Hall of Famer.

Boxing is of interest to economists and decision theorists as there is no other sport with a comparable competitive structure to it. Boxing has no central governing body, there is no set league or competition and no set future schedule. What it has is a number of governing organisations, each with their own belts in each weight division. The problem with such a structure is that fighters may not end up fighting the best available opponent. A singular weight division for example can have numerous legitimate world champions at any one time (IBF, WBC, WBA and WBO are all considered the most legitimate governing bodies but there is a number of others including WBF and IBO). Champions then have to defend their belts against mandatory challengers within their organisation or risk losing their 'world champion' status. Champions in a singular weight division however, do not end up facing each other, mainly due to organisations having different rankings and for the fear that defeat could mean a downward trend in a fighter’s career and in some cases, the end of a career.

If a team or individual lose in another sport it is often looked upon as a reason to come back stronger. Boxing however, due to the explicit physical dangers, is different. A fighter carries a high cost if defeated. It is not unusual if a fighter is defeated for many to question their ability to continue (certainly at the level they are defeated).Decisions on opponents are therefore all the more important and it has become a highly strategic game. 
 
But this is only one blade of the scissors; the economics of a fight is essential for it to go ahead also. The success of bouts is dependent on the interest the public take in the fight. No matter how talented a fighter is, it will not necessarily mean they will be financially successful. The market truly decides on whether a fighter will be financially successful or not.
  
Thus to have a successful career you not only need the ability but you must tick both the boxes of choosing wisely over opponents and meeting the market’s needs, something Floyd Mayweather excels at.

Mayweather’s impressive record is in no small part due to his decision-making where he evaluates his position in the market and the abilities of his opponent. The risks of fighting remain the same for every boxer but what Mayweather has done particularly well in the latter half of his career is make calculated risks and chosen opponents whereby most of his challengers have to leave their ‘comfort zone’ while he remains in his. Mayweather understands that having that zero on his record allows him to earn more than any other fighter. Boxers, outside of the heavyweight division and local fighters, find it difficult to catch the general public’s imagination at the consistent level of other sports. Mayweather understands his undefeated status is a signal that allows him to stimulate interest amongst the general public and make more money through Pay Per View sales. On the flip side, he also understands a defeat would be detrimental to his earning potential. A good example of this was his decision not to fight Manny Pacquiao that was widely criticised.

While not denying his superior talent, his excellent decisions on who to fight support his record. In particular Mayweather has chosen wisely over the last six years if one considers the optimum weight of an opponent and the weight they fight Mayweather at.

For most fighters there is a positive correlation between their weight and number of fights. Weight increases as fighters get into the ring more. Mayweather is no different here (see below). When fighters are younger they can maintain a lower weight but as they age this becomes more difficult. Naturally they move up in
weight classifications. Mayweather has followed this trend with few deviations. Furthermore, It is generally accepted that fighters lose speed and may potentially not maintain their punching power as they go up through weight divisions fighting naturally bigger opponents. On the other hand, fighters may lose conditioning which effects their durability if they are forced to come down weightdivisions and fight opponents who are more natural at lighter weights. 

If we look at the De La Hoya fight in 2007 as a starting point in achieving his worldwide elite status, Mayweather actually jumped up in weight from welterweight (147lbs), his most comfortable weight, to junior middleweight (154lbs). This was a calculated risk. De La Hoya fought only twice in the previous three years and one was a loss at middleweight (160lbs). Mayweather won a largely unimpressive bout but it helped elevate him to a household name outside of boxing and the United States.

His next opponent was Ricky Hatton. This fight was at welterweight,
Mayweathers optimum weight. Hatton had only fought as high as light welterweight (140lbs) before this fight. Mayweather won by impressive TKO in round 10. 
 
The following bout was against Juan Manuel Marquez. Again the fight was at welterweight. Marquez had previously fought as high as junior welterweight but many would argue lightweight was his optimum weight (135lbs). Mayweather won an easy unanimous decision.

Following this he took on Shane Mosley, again at welterweight. Like the De La Hoya fight, the decision to fight Mosley was calculated. Mosley was campaigning at welterweight but was in his 39th year and had fought at a higher weight some four years earlier. He also had five defeats on his record by the time he stepped into the ring. Mayweather won an easy unanimous decision. 

Mayweather won his next bout against Victor Ortiz with a 4th round KO in controversial fashion. Again, Ortiz had only fought once at welterweight and had mainly campaigned as a light welterweight in the previous years.
  
Perhaps Mayweathers biggest risk in recent years was moving up to light middleweight for the first time since fighting De La Hoya for his fight with Miguel Cotto. His classed showed over twelve rounds with a unanimous decision victory over Cotto.

The most recent bout of Mayweather was against Robert Guerrero at welterweight once more. Guerrero, while fighting at welterweight twice was only three bouts previous campaigning at lightweight (135lbs).

So what’s next for Floyd?

As I mentioned at the beginning, this September he will take on Saul Alvarez, a young undefeated Mexican World Champion at light middleweight. The fight will take place at a catchweight 152lbs even though the light middleweight limit is higher at 154lbs. Alvarez is a relatively big light middleweight with many boxing analysts saying he may be a more natural middleweight. In between fights he certainly walks around at a much bigger weight than light middleweight. Mayweather on the other hand says his natural weight between fights is about 150lbs. While Alvarez has shown no problems in getting down to the light middleweight limit of 154lbs, those extra two pounds may not seem a lot but at this elite level of sport fine margins are where victory is gained or loss is suffered. 

This is, in my opinion, why Floyd Mayweather Jr is the undefeated fighter he is. He never has to push his body beyond its limits to meet weight limits. His opponents more often than not, do. Since his 2005 fight against Sharmba Mitchell, Mayweather has fought at welterweight with only two exceptions, Cotto and De La Hoya. His ability and undefeated status has allowed him the bargaining power to stay within his preferred weight category, removing a variable that could potentially damage his chances of success. His opponents however often do not fight in their preferred weight division. In addition, the comfort zone of Maywether is extended to only fighting in Las Vegas since 2006 which happens to be his city of residence.

Perphaps the take home message is that boxing at an elite level leaves very little room for error. A sport like boxing, unlike others, affords fighters the opportunity to choose opponents. Because of this and the due to the high price of loss, fighter must do a cost-benefit analysis like very few other athletes. Floyd Mayweather Jr and his team have perfected this. 

This was a guest contribution by Gary Burns - Gary holds a degree in economics and has made various contributions both to print and online media on Boxing