​Expected Goals (xG) is measure that considers a team’s efforts on goal relative to the difficulty of the chance created. Lots of information on a given shot (player positioning, distance from goal, angles, body-part used etc.) is plugged into a statistical model which in turn produces the xG stat. High xG generally transfers to more dangerous chance creation – it might be considered as a measure of threat.
​The first table shows the xG table for the Premier League season so far using the publically available xG statistics (understat.com) ordered by total xG.
As expected, there's a correlation between xG's and actual goals scored but this is not perfect. For example, the correlation coefficient for for Home xG and home goals so far this season is .60. (and .62 for away xG and goals).
Team/Stat |
Home xG |
Away xG |
Total xG |
Manchester City |
34.71 |
38.37 |
73.08 |
Liverpool |
35.21 |
25.81 |
61.02 |
Chelsea |
33.23 |
22.69 |
55.92 |
Manchester United |
28.07 |
20.99 |
49.06 |
Leicester City |
22.28 |
25.47 |
47.75 |
Everton |
23.43 |
23.17 |
46.6 |
Wolves |
22.67 |
21.81 |
44.48 |
Southampton |
20.19 |
20.88 |
41.07 |
Burnley |
25.83 |
14.56 |
40.39 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
20.49 |
19.12 |
39.61 |
Brighton & Hove Albion |
20.13 |
18.88 |
39.01 |
Arsenal |
22.14 |
16.28 |
38.42 |
Watford |
23.77 |
13.34 |
37.11 |
Sheffield United |
22.66 |
13.33 |
35.99 |
West Ham United |
19.99 |
14.97 |
34.96 |
Aston Villa |
17.96 |
16.85 |
34.81 |
AFC Bournemouth |
18.75 |
15.47 |
34.22 |
Norwich City |
15.61 |
16.71 |
32.32 |
Crystal Palace |
14.72 |
13.75 |
28.47 |
Newcastle United |
13.48 |
12.41 |
25.89 |
Team/Stat |
Home xG |
H Goals |
Home Diff |
Leicester City |
22.28 |
30 |
7.72 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
20.49 |
27 |
6.51 |
Liverpool |
35.21 |
40 |
4.79 |
Arsenal |
22.14 |
26 |
3.86 |
Norwich City |
15.61 |
19 |
3.39 |
West Ham United |
19.99 |
23 |
3.01 |
Manchester United |
28.07 |
29 |
0.93 |
Aston Villa |
17.96 |
18 |
0.04 |
Newcastle United |
13.48 |
12 |
-1.48 |
Wolves |
22.67 |
21 |
-1.67 |
AFC Bournemouth |
18.75 |
17 |
-1.75 |
Crystal Palace |
14.72 |
12 |
-2.72 |
Brighton & Hove Albion |
20.13 |
17 |
-3.13 |
Manchester City |
34.71 |
31 |
-3.71 |
Southampton |
20.19 |
16 |
-4.19 |
Everton |
23.43 |
19 |
-4.43 |
Sheffield United |
22.66 |
17 |
-5.66 |
Burnley |
25.83 |
20 |
-5.83 |
Watford |
23.77 |
16 |
-7.77 |
Chelsea |
33.23 |
22 |
-11.23 |
Team/Stat |
Away xG |
A Goals |
Away Diff |
Chelsea |
22.69 |
28 |
5.31 |
Crystal Palace |
13.75 |
19 |
5.25 |
Leicester City |
25.47 |
28 |
2.53 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
19.12 |
20 |
0.88 |
Newcastle United |
12.41 |
13 |
0.59 |
Liverpool |
25.81 |
26 |
0.19 |
Sheffield United |
13.33 |
13 |
-0.33 |
Burnley |
14.56 |
14 |
-0.56 |
Aston Villa |
16.85 |
16 |
-0.85 |
West Ham United |
14.97 |
14 |
-0.97 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
21.81 |
20 |
-1.81 |
Southampton |
20.88 |
19 |
-1.88 |
Arsenal |
16.28 |
14 |
-2.28 |
Watford |
13.34 |
11 |
-2.34 |
Manchester City |
38.37 |
35 |
-3.37 |
AFC Bournemouth |
15.47 |
12 |
-3.47 |
Brighton & Hove Albion |
18.88 |
15 |
-3.88 |
Everton |
23.17 |
18 |
-5.17 |
Manchester United |
20.99 |
15 |
-5.99 |
Norwich City |
16.71 |
6 |
-10.71 |
Team/Stat |
Total xG |
Total Goals |
Total Diff |
Leicester City |
47.75 |
58 |
10.25 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
39.61 |
47 |
7.39 |
Liverpool |
61.02 |
66 |
4.98 |
Crystal Palace |
28.47 |
31 |
2.53 |
West Ham United |
34.96 |
37 |
2.04 |
Arsenal |
38.42 |
40 |
1.58 |
Aston Villa |
34.81 |
34 |
-0.81 |
Newcastle United |
25.89 |
25 |
-0.89 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
44.48 |
41 |
-3.48 |
Manchester United |
49.06 |
44 |
-5.06 |
AFC Bournemouth |
34.22 |
29 |
-5.22 |
Chelsea |
55.92 |
50 |
-5.92 |
Sheffield United |
35.99 |
30 |
-5.99 |
Southampton |
41.07 |
35 |
-6.07 |
Burnley |
40.39 |
34 |
-6.39 |
Brighton & Hove Albion |
39.01 |
32 |
-7.01 |
Manchester City |
73.08 |
66 |
-7.08 |
Norwich City |
32.32 |
25 |
-7.32 |
Everton |
46.6 |
37 |
-9.6 |
Watford |
37.11 |
27 |
-10.11 |