Which is better? Having the ‘Best Offence’ or the ‘Best Defence’?

By John Eakins

This blog has had a number of contributions on factors which could be used to predict the English premier league winners (see here, here and here). Here is another one. Which will give you the greatest chance of winning the premier league – having the best offence (in terms of the greatest number of goals scored) or having the best defence (in terms of the lowest number of goals conceded)? It’s a topical question at the moment given that the current top 4 in
the premier league have two teams with the best offensive records in the league (Manchester City and Liverpool) and one team with the best defensive record in the league (Chelsea although one could arguably also add Arsenal, the other top 4 team, to this category if you exclude their big defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool). So who will triumph in the end?

Let’s look at long term trends first. Table 1 provides summary statistics based on data for the past 50 seasons of the English league. The table also gives similar statistics for the German, Spanish and Italian leagues for comparison purposes. In the table there is information on the proportion of times the best offensive team has won the league, the proportion of times the best defensive team has won the league, the median final position of the best offensive and defensive team (as there is on occasion some extreme outlier’s in the final position of the best offensive and defensive team) and the associated standard deviation.

The figures suggest that a greater proportion of English winners have been the best offensive team although the difference between this figure and the proportion of winners with the best defensive record is small. The median position of the best offensive team is also higher relative to the best defensive team. In Germany, we have the opposite trend with the best defensive team winning a significantly greater proportion of titles and having a higher  median position. In Spain, offensive teams are more successful, while in Italy, defensive teams are slightly more successful. So in ranking from most offensive to least offensive we have Spain, England, Italy and Germany. It is interesting that this ranking would bear our preconceived notions regarding football in these countries.
 
Table 2 presents the same data but this time for just the past 20 seasons of each league. In the English and German leagues there is a clear move toward more offensive teams winning the league title and having a higher median  position in the league. In the Spanish league offensive teams are just as successful while defensive teams are becoming less successful with a relatively lower median position in the league. Finally, Italy appears to buck the trend
with defensive teams becoming relatively more successful over the last 20 seasons relative to the last 50 seasons.  It would be interesting to see how this correlates with success at European and International level but that is left to another day. 

Back to our initial question. There does appear to be clear trend toward more offensive teams winning the English premier league (and other leagues) so that would favour Manchester City and Liverpool. Defensive strength is still clearly important and out of these two Manchester City have the best defensive record. So a tentative nod to Manchester City to win the premier league 2013/14. In Germany, Bayern Munich are clear favourites having the best  offensive and defensive records so far. In Spain, the analysis suggests that it’s a shoot-out between Barcelona and Real Madrid (not so much of a surprise there), while in Italy Roma could be an outside bet given that they currently has the  best defensive record.