By John Eakins
On Saturday the 24th May, the richest game in club football will take place between Derby County and Queens Park Rangers to determine who will take the 3rd and last promotion place from the Championship to the Premier League. Leicester City as Champions and Burnley as runners up have already booked their places. But the question for many of their fans is how these promoted clubs will perform in the Premier League Since it was established in the 1992/93 season only twice has all three teams promoted managed to stay in the Premier League in the subsequent season, in 2001/02 and 2011/12. On one occasion all three teams promoted were relegated in the subsequent season, in 1997/98. On average over the seasons since 1992/93, at least 1 team has been relegated straight after being promoted – the actual average being equal to 1.27.
On Saturday the 24th May, the richest game in club football will take place between Derby County and Queens Park Rangers to determine who will take the 3rd and last promotion place from the Championship to the Premier League. Leicester City as Champions and Burnley as runners up have already booked their places. But the question for many of their fans is how these promoted clubs will perform in the Premier League Since it was established in the 1992/93 season only twice has all three teams promoted managed to stay in the Premier League in the subsequent season, in 2001/02 and 2011/12. On one occasion all three teams promoted were relegated in the subsequent season, in 1997/98. On average over the seasons since 1992/93, at least 1 team has been relegated straight after being promoted – the actual average being equal to 1.27.
We can look into this story in some more detail by assessing the survival rate of promoted teams after the first season and beyond. (see here for a related blog by David Butler on the Myth of Second Season Syndrome). In total, 62 teams have been promoted to the Premier League since 1992/93 (in 1994/95 only two teams were promoted and four teams were relegated to reduce the size of the Premier League to 20 teams). The table below shows the number of seasons that these teams have survived in the Premier League. The analysis is complicated slightly by the fact that there are teams who have been promoted to the Premier League and have then been relegated and there are teams who have been promoted to the Premier League and have since stayed. Manchester City is a prime example of this having being promoted in 2001/02 and will enter their 13th season in the Premier League in August as Champions.
So 27 out of the 62 teams promoted have lasted only one season in the Premier League. 10 of the 62 teams promoted have lasted two seasons (figures which include Hull City and Crystal Palace who will spend a second successive season in the Premier League next year). It is noticeable that after the first two seasons the numbers fall significantly. Only 25 out of the 62 teams promoted last three seasons or more. Going further, only 7 out of the 62 teams promoted
last ten seasons or more in the Premier League. The figure below plots these survival rates (in proportionate terms) for the number of seasons in the Premier League.
last ten seasons or more in the Premier League. The figure below plots these survival rates (in proportionate terms) for the number of seasons in the Premier League.
One other interesting feature of the data is the fact that while 62 teams have been promoted to the Premier League since 1992/93, many of these are the same clubs. In all, 35 clubs have been promoted since 1992/93 which suggests that there are clubs which are getting relegated from the Premier League but who are subsequently returning later on. Crystal Palace has been relegated four times and promoted four times since 1992/93. Sunderland and West Brom have each been promoted four times and relegated three times. The‘boucebackability’ rate of clubs to the Premier League is something that I will look at once we know who has won the championship play-off.
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