By John Considine
The world's most capped rugby international, Brian O'Driscoll, played his last Irish game on Saturday 15th March 2014. ESPN present his career in statistics (here). It reads: Appearances 141, Tries 47, Drop-goals 5, Points 250, Wins 82, Loses 57, Draws 2, Win rate 58.86%. If we limit the analysis to the Five/Six Nations tournament then the win rate climbs to 70%. That 70% can be compared to the 40% win rate Ireland had in the 2012 Six Nations when O’Driscoll was missing due to injury. It seems fair to suggest that O’Driscoll will be missed.
Two papers in economics would also suggest that O’Driscoll will be missed. The Quarterly Journal of Economics published a paper called ‘Superstar Extinction’ in 2010. The paper by Pierre Azoulay, Joshua Graff Zivin and Jialan Wang examined the output of academics when a collaborating superstar died. The authors examined the changes in research output for collaborators of 112 eminent scientists who dies suddenly and unexpectedly. They found that there was a 5% to 8% decline in the quality-adjusted publication rates. While O’Driscoll’s retirement was neither unexpected nor sudden, the fear must remain that a similar drop in quality-adjusted play might follow.
The second paper of interest was published in the American Economic Review in 2009. Alexandre Mas and Enrico Moretti examined peer effects in the workplace. The workplace was a large supermarket chain and the workers were cashiers. Mas and Moretti found positive productivity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift. They also found that the productivity spillovers were limited to those who could see the highly productive worker. For example, a productive cashier introduced into aisle 13 had an impact on 12 and 14. If we translate this into rugby then O’Driscoll’s productivity in the number 13 shirt should have rubbed off on people like Gordon D’Arcy (12) and Andrew Trimble (14).
The Gordon D’Arcy example is also relevant for another finding by Mas and Moretti. O’Driscoll and D’Arcy have been the most capped centre-pairing in international rugby. They also play together in Leinster. Mas and Moretti found that cashiers respond more to the presence of colleagues with whom they frequently interact. Maybe Gordon should be doing his best to get Brian to reconsider a return to the Irish shirt. Even allowing for the sentimentality, a player who received the man-of-the-match award in each of his last two games must have something left to offer.
The second paper of interest was published in the American Economic Review in 2009. Alexandre Mas and Enrico Moretti examined peer effects in the workplace. The workplace was a large supermarket chain and the workers were cashiers. Mas and Moretti found positive productivity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift. They also found that the productivity spillovers were limited to those who could see the highly productive worker. For example, a productive cashier introduced into aisle 13 had an impact on 12 and 14. If we translate this into rugby then O’Driscoll’s productivity in the number 13 shirt should have rubbed off on people like Gordon D’Arcy (12) and Andrew Trimble (14).
The Gordon D’Arcy example is also relevant for another finding by Mas and Moretti. O’Driscoll and D’Arcy have been the most capped centre-pairing in international rugby. They also play together in Leinster. Mas and Moretti found that cashiers respond more to the presence of colleagues with whom they frequently interact. Maybe Gordon should be doing his best to get Brian to reconsider a return to the Irish shirt. Even allowing for the sentimentality, a player who received the man-of-the-match award in each of his last two games must have something left to offer.
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