By John Considine
Over the last couple of weeks or so there has been plenty of media coverage of the predicted grades of students leaving second-level education in Scotland and England. At times I wondered if I was in Lake Wobegon where all the children are above average. It was revealed that the teachers grades for the class of 2020 were on average 12% higher than those achieved in the examinations by the class of 2019. Does anyone think that the class of 2020 is on average 12% better than the class of 2019?
Attempts at moderating the grades were not well received and moderation was subsequently overturned. I wonder how the teachers who returned relatively lower grades are feeling. Possibly like players who try to stay on their feet, after being tackled/fouled in the penalty box, only to go unrewarded by a weak referee. If we are in a similar position next year then expect those teachers to have learned their lesson.
It reminded me of another hard to believe 12% increase. In 2011 we were informed of a 12.4% increase in Irish sporting participation between two editions of the Irish Sports Monitor. The 2009 edition listed participation in sport at 33.5%. The next edition of the Irish Sports Monitor was published in 2011. Participation was listed at 45.9%. There was also a whispered warning about collection methods.
That is a 12.4% increase over two years. Yet on page 12 of the 2009 Irish Sports Monitor it said “participation rates in sport and exercise do not generally alter by more than around a single percentage point per year”. At the time, it was my students who spotted the change. It was part of a project on the government funding of sport. I contacted the Irish Sports Council for clarification. The clarification was like something one would get from an EU Commissioner accused of breaking Covid-19 guidelines. I even invited my contact to talk to the class at a time of their choice. Nothing doing!
Attempts at moderating the grades were not well received and moderation was subsequently overturned. I wonder how the teachers who returned relatively lower grades are feeling. Possibly like players who try to stay on their feet, after being tackled/fouled in the penalty box, only to go unrewarded by a weak referee. If we are in a similar position next year then expect those teachers to have learned their lesson.
It reminded me of another hard to believe 12% increase. In 2011 we were informed of a 12.4% increase in Irish sporting participation between two editions of the Irish Sports Monitor. The 2009 edition listed participation in sport at 33.5%. The next edition of the Irish Sports Monitor was published in 2011. Participation was listed at 45.9%. There was also a whispered warning about collection methods.
That is a 12.4% increase over two years. Yet on page 12 of the 2009 Irish Sports Monitor it said “participation rates in sport and exercise do not generally alter by more than around a single percentage point per year”. At the time, it was my students who spotted the change. It was part of a project on the government funding of sport. I contacted the Irish Sports Council for clarification. The clarification was like something one would get from an EU Commissioner accused of breaking Covid-19 guidelines. I even invited my contact to talk to the class at a time of their choice. Nothing doing!
A couple of years later, the next Irish Sports Monitor is published. The 2011 figure is revised downwards to 44.8%. There was probably a genuine reason for this. That said, I can't get the following sentence, from Nineteen Eight-Four, out of my head. "Winston's job was to rectify the original figures by making them agree with later ones."
I have written previously about the strange bobble in the figure in 2015 (here). But let us move forward to 2019. The figure from the 2019 Irish Sports Monitor is 46%. It was 45.9% in 2011. Accepting a margin of error, it seems we can believe the numbers between 2011 and 2019. In the absence of a flu pandemic was a 12.4% increase in two years believable? It is about as believable as saying that the class of 2020 is on average 12% better than the class of 2019.
I have written previously about the strange bobble in the figure in 2015 (here). But let us move forward to 2019. The figure from the 2019 Irish Sports Monitor is 46%. It was 45.9% in 2011. Accepting a margin of error, it seems we can believe the numbers between 2011 and 2019. In the absence of a flu pandemic was a 12.4% increase in two years believable? It is about as believable as saying that the class of 2020 is on average 12% better than the class of 2019.
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