by Declan Jordan
In a paper on the effect of rivalry of team performance I've gathered data on
manager churn as a control variable. I've collated data on when clubs have
changed manager. The data is for every club that has appeared in the Premier
League since it started in 1992/3 until the end of the 2012/13 season (21
years). There is one club missing (Wimbledon/MK Dons as they are the only club to shift location significantly in that period - that is if they are the same
club at all). That means there are 44 clubs in the sample.
manager churn as a control variable. I've collated data on when clubs have
changed manager. The data is for every club that has appeared in the Premier
League since it started in 1992/3 until the end of the 2012/13 season (21
years). There is one club missing (Wimbledon/MK Dons as they are the only club to shift location significantly in that period - that is if they are the same
club at all). That means there are 44 clubs in the sample.
When I mentioned to a colleague that I was gathering this data he made the comment that he expected the rate of managerial change will have increased in the last few years compared to the early years of the then Premiership. I can't get at a definitive answer to that question with the data I have but I can shed some light on it. I have a binary variable taking a value if the club changed manager in a given season. The reason I can't get at the rate of managerial change is that I cannot capture whether there has been more than one change in a season - and this is certainly a phenomenon at some Premier League clubs in recent years.
The table below shows the average number of seasons in which clubs have changed their manager (at least once). It can be seen that over the 21 seasons, clubs changed managers in 8.18 seasons on average. Splitting the time period in two (11 seasons to 2003 and 10 seasons to 2013) there is an almost equal average. When split into three equal periods of 7 seasons there is a notable rise in the average number of seasons with a managerial change to 3.23 in the later period, though there is a dip from the first to second periods. This could explain why there is a sense that the rate has increased dramatically since we are more likely to draw on more recent history for comparison.
The table below shows the average number of seasons in which clubs have changed their manager (at least once). It can be seen that over the 21 seasons, clubs changed managers in 8.18 seasons on average. Splitting the time period in two (11 seasons to 2003 and 10 seasons to 2013) there is an almost equal average. When split into three equal periods of 7 seasons there is a notable rise in the average number of seasons with a managerial change to 3.23 in the later period, though there is a dip from the first to second periods. This could explain why there is a sense that the rate has increased dramatically since we are more likely to draw on more recent history for comparison.
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