By John Considine
From early on in the pandemic, researchers have been estimating the deaths caused by the virus (now with many variants identified by geographical origin). The most basic calculation is where current deaths are compared with the average for a previous period or periods. Any excess is attributed to the virus. We can take a similar approach to examine the excess number of home wins associated with the presence of fans.
As of today there have been 320 games completed of the 380 games in the 2020-21 Premier League season. There are slightly more away wins (125) than home wins (120). They are within 5% of each other. What makes this surprising is that it is well below what normally happens. If we take the 5 seasons from 2014-15 to 2018-19 then we find that home wins are 51% higher than away wins. Following basic estimation of excess deaths, we can attribute the excess of home wins over away wins to the presence of fans. Basic, but a good first approximation.
Below is the ratio of home wins to away wins (no draw/ties included) for this season and five of the previous six seasons. The 2019-20 season is excluded.
As of today there have been 320 games completed of the 380 games in the 2020-21 Premier League season. There are slightly more away wins (125) than home wins (120). They are within 5% of each other. What makes this surprising is that it is well below what normally happens. If we take the 5 seasons from 2014-15 to 2018-19 then we find that home wins are 51% higher than away wins. Following basic estimation of excess deaths, we can attribute the excess of home wins over away wins to the presence of fans. Basic, but a good first approximation.
Below is the ratio of home wins to away wins (no draw/ties included) for this season and five of the previous six seasons. The 2019-20 season is excluded.
The above drop in 2020-21 is not a surprise to the readers of the Journal of Sports Economics. Last May I drew attention to a 2018 paper by Michela Ponzo and Vincenzo Scoppa that addressed the crowds issue using a wonderful set of same city derbies (here).
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