Comparative Analysis: LVG and Moyes

By Robbie Butler

In football we often compare things in relative terms, rather than absolute, just like in economics. Louis van Gaal has now been at the helm of Manchester United for nearly six months. United have certainly made progress under the Dutchman, helped by the large transfer budget in the summer that brought in the likes of Falcao, Di Maria, Rojo and Blind. 

The graph below shows the accumulation of points under Van Gaal and his predecessor David Moyes for the first 25 leagues played this season and last.

People might be surprised by the fact the Moyes was outperforming LVG early in his United tenure and again until roughly a third of the season had passed. Both managers had the same number of points after 21 league games in charge of United; 37 points. Since then, LVG has begun to move away from the Scot.

Why is LVG not under the same scrutiny as Moyes? Maybe his proven track record has bought him extra wiggle room. It’s possible last season’s poor league form has altered expectation levels dramatically. However, I think it’s more to do with relative league position. 

While a six point gap exists between LVG and Moyes after 25 games, under Moyes United would have been in 8th this season. After 13 and 21 leagues matches respectively LVG and Moyes had the same number of league points; 22 and 37. However, LVG was 4th on both occasions, while Moyes was 8th and 7th. In relative terms United were doing better, but not absolute.

However, the league race is a relative one. In theory, 40 points could win the league. If 40 points were enough and a team won the league with this amount, the season would be a massive success.  I’ll do a final update on this in early April when we get to compare the full Moyes era with that of LVG.