By Ed Valentine

​Recap of Week 5
  
The high risk strategy did not pay off last week with Bayern being held to a draw at Union Berlin. Having watched the game I can say Union were the better team in parts and would not have been undeserving of taking all 3 points. The milk isn’t getting back in the glass. On to this weekend.
 
It’s unlikely there will be Premier League football this weekend – I have a ticket to Man City vs Spurs which will likely be rescheduled in January – so we’ll focus on the continent.
 
Week 6 selections:
Napoli vs Spezia
Napoli to win @1.35
 
Atalanta vs Cremonese
Atalanta to win @1.40
 
Juventus vs Salernitana
Juventus to win @1.50
 
This will be placed as a triple at combined odds of 2.84
€[email protected] |Potential Returns €142 |Potential Net Returns €92
 
Week 5 Potential Returns €72.50
Potential net return €0

By Robbie Butler

The first ever winter World Cup, and the first to be hosted in the Middle-East, is now less than 100 days away. Much of the excitement about the competition is generated from the fact that it takes place only once every 4 years. For the average international player that means they probably get two chances to compete in their prime, or three if they are very lucky. In many cases, due to injury or failure to qualify, professional players often get just one shot at the biggest prize in football.

And despite the excitement and anticipation, one thing that remains constant about the World Cup is often its predictability. While picking a winner at the start is difficult, it can be narrowed down to a very small number of countries. The map below is quite something and illustrates the winners of the competition since the first World Cup in 1930 - there have been just 8.

Not only have just eight teams won the competition, but these eight are drawn from Western Europe and South America. Six of the eight have won the competition more than once - only England (1966) and Spain (2010) are one-time winners.

While the level of competitive balance is high within games, the general outcome is often not. The top six teams in the betting for the 2022 instalment are Brazil, France, England, Argentina, Spain and Germany. All six are coloured in the map above. It's highly likely that after the 2022 World Cup the countries coloured grey now will still be grey. Unless someone like Belgium, Netherlands or Portugal can pull a surprise.

European teams are also chasing an unprecedented 5-in-a-row. Brazil were the last non-European winners back in 2002. Prior to this the trophy had been traded between South America and Europe from 1962 to 2006. Spain broke this in 2010 winning the competition on the back of Italy's win in 2006. It remains to be seen whether a country outside of UEFA can take the trophy away from Europe's tight grip. 

By John Considine

Hurling is ball and stick game where a team gets an uncontested strike when their opponents put the ball out of the rectangular field of play.  The team is allowed to score directly from this uncontested strike.  The type of uncontested strike allowed depends on the side of the rectangle where the ball went out of play, i.e. out of hand, off the ground, lift with stick and strike.  This post is only concerned with uncontested strikes from the two sidelines.  The ball is struck like a golf shot from the fairway. This post is only concerned with data from the 2022 Munster Senior Hurling Championship.  It comprised eleven games.  Ten games from a single round-robin tournament followed by a final between the top two teams.

The Munster senior hurling final was a game between Limerick and Clare.  Normal time in the final ended with an uncontested sideline strike by Clare's Tony Kelly (visuals here).  This score took the game to extra-time.

A score from such an uncontested strike is a rare occurrence.  Approximately 2.5% of the almost 300 such uncontested sideline strikes, from the 11 games, resulted in a direct score.  It is probably fair to say that half of these 300 strikes were not within range of a potential score.  The longer range scores came from Austin Gleeson, Peter Duggan and Noel McGrath with efforts of 50-55m from their opponents' endline.

For the same reasons as presented in a previous post (Going for it), it is difficult to establish the number of attempts at scores.  There can be a gap between intention and execution.  The number of strikes that crossed the opponents endline but outside the scoring zone was also approximately 2.5% of the total.  With this measure, the conversion rate is roughly 50%.

Allowing for the small numbers, and the difficulties with attributing intentions, the teams most likely to shoot directly for a score were Clare, Tipperary, and Waterford.  Limerick, the Munster (and All-Ireland) champions, and by far the most successful team in the last five years, seem to refuse the option of going direct for a score.  Are there any lessons for players and coaches?  What are the likely implications for the way the game and associated practices will evolve?  Is it in line with what the supporters and TV audiences want to see?  Are there lessons for the legislators of the game?

By Ed Valentine

Recap of Week 4
 
WEEK 4 Overall returns €32
Net returns -€18
 
The pot is €8 in profit after 4 game weeks.
Total outlay €200
Total returns €208
Net Result €8 | +4%
  
The pot was unable to build on its fully successful week 4 tranche. PSG and Bayern, who scored 7 each the previous week, both had an uncharacteristic draw. The bulk of the outlay being placed on them as a double hurt the net returns. After 4 rounds of beating it sits in 4% net profit overall. Still a lot better than any interest rate in the large retail banks, 4.5 times greater than interest offered on an Irish current account with a popular savings account provider.
 
A risky move this week with one all or nothing bet being placed on Bayern to win in Berlin. Surely a return to winning ways for the German champions though with an eye on Champions League in the coming week they may decide to rest some players. That prospect, last weeks draw and playing away has given very attractive odds.
  
Week 5 selections:
 
Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich
Bayern to win €[email protected] Potential Returns €72.50
 
Week 5 Potential Returns €72.50
Potential net return €22.50

By Robbie Butler

Recently, I had a conversation with my television provider about my sports subscription payments. As is always the case, this rises through time, and one often ends up paying far more than one would like for access to 'premium' sports content.

My call was motivated by the fact that the company is advertising a discount offer at the moment to new customers, or existing customers that do not have the sports subscription package. My question to the person I was speaking to was “Why is my 'loyalty' punished?”.

Of course, the question was not answered but negotiations started, and my payment was reduced, though not as far as the discounted offer to others.

I understand the logic. The company, rather than seeing me as loyal, views my demand as relatively inelastic. I’ve been willing to pay for this service for many years, so they assume it is somewhat essential to me. The discounted price is offered to those that view the product as more of a luxury, in the hope that the reduced cost might entice some to sign-up. The model seems to work.

While my demand for this sports product is from the armchair, others demand the product from inside the stadium. Football clubs – to their enduring credit – appear to do the exact opposite to television providers. Loyalty is not punished but rather rewarded.

The season ticket – the ultimate commitment that any supporter can make year-to-year to support their team – is sold at a discounted price on average. This is especially true outside of the very elite clubs (it would probably be possible to buy individual seats at the lowest price range for less than a season ticket in some top clubs). The reason for this dates back decades, and was an attempt by owners to become cash-rich before the season kicked off, in order to fund the team in the months that followed.

This logic runs counter to the subscription sports provider. The season ticket holder must be, by definition, the most inelastic consumer of the football team’s product. Would they not be wiling to pay more? Probably. Yet clubs do the opposite and reward their commitment and loyalty. Yet another example of the public good status of the football club.