By Stephen Brosnan
Recently, I discussed the relationship between the expenditure by Premier League clubs on players’ wages and the number of points accrued so far in the 2016-17 Premier League season. Following the post, I received some welcomed feedback (here) regarding the usefulness of wages as a measure of efficiency and alternative measures which may capture whether clubs spending is efficient relative to points earned. The purpose of this post is to address these issues by identifying alternative measures of Premier League teams’ efficiency in ‘acquiring’ points.
Table 1 shows the expenditure by Premier League clubs on wages and transfers (both total and net spend) for 2016-17 as well as points earned both in the current Premier League season and previous season. Points earned in 2015-16 are unavailable for the newly promoted teams – Middlesbrough, Burnley and Hull City.
Recently, I discussed the relationship between the expenditure by Premier League clubs on players’ wages and the number of points accrued so far in the 2016-17 Premier League season. Following the post, I received some welcomed feedback (here) regarding the usefulness of wages as a measure of efficiency and alternative measures which may capture whether clubs spending is efficient relative to points earned. The purpose of this post is to address these issues by identifying alternative measures of Premier League teams’ efficiency in ‘acquiring’ points.
Table 1 shows the expenditure by Premier League clubs on wages and transfers (both total and net spend) for 2016-17 as well as points earned both in the current Premier League season and previous season. Points earned in 2015-16 are unavailable for the newly promoted teams – Middlesbrough, Burnley and Hull City.
In Soccernomics, Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski use correlation analysis to measure the strength of the relationship between expenditure on wages and transfers and points earned by football clubs. In this post, I have used the same method to measure the strength of these relationships, as well as the relationship between points earned last year and points earned this year.
Table 2 shows the Pearson correlation coefficient for the relationship between various variables and points earned this season by Premier League clubs.
Table 2 shows the Pearson correlation coefficient for the relationship between various variables and points earned this season by Premier League clubs.
Table 2 shows that the strongest relationship measured by the correlation coefficient is between wages and points earned. The coefficient of 0.87 indicates a strong positive relationship between expenditure by clubs on players’ wages and overall points accumulated. While strong positive relationship exist between the two transfer variables the strength of the relationship is weaker in magnitude.
The weakest relationship exists between points won in the Premier League last season and points won this season. One possible reason for a weaker relationship using this measure is the noticeable distortions from the norm that occurred last season with Leicester winning their first ever league title while recent champions Chelsea having an abnormally poor season. This season has witnessed a more common league table with Chelsea sitting 8 points clear at the top of the league with Leicester flirting dangerously with relegation.
The weakest relationship exists between points won in the Premier League last season and points won this season. One possible reason for a weaker relationship using this measure is the noticeable distortions from the norm that occurred last season with Leicester winning their first ever league title while recent champions Chelsea having an abnormally poor season. This season has witnessed a more common league table with Chelsea sitting 8 points clear at the top of the league with Leicester flirting dangerously with relegation.
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