Prof. Forrest's paper is called Unscripted drama: The impact of surprise, suspense and shock on television audiences for football and is a collaboration with Babatunde Buriamo, Ian McHale and J.D. Tena.
All are welcome
Prof. David Forrest from the University of Liverpool (in collaboration with the Centre of Sports Economics & Law and Department of Economics) will present at University College Cork this Friday 9th of February, at 3pm in Aras na Laoi G.26
Prof. Forrest's paper is called Unscripted drama: The impact of surprise, suspense and shock on television audiences for football and is a collaboration with Babatunde Buriamo, Ian McHale and J.D. Tena. All are welcome By Diarmuid Gillingham Diarmuid is a final year undergraduate student at University College Cork. In recent years UEFA has tried to increase the importance of international football. Such measures include the spreading out of European Championship qualification fixtures over a week period rather than just a couple of days and more recently the introduction of the UEFA Nations League. The Nations League aims to decrease the number of meaningless friendly games as well as reduce the number of one-sided matches often shared between nations. Except for fans from smaller countries, who are keen to see big names such as Harry Kane or Antoine Greizman, nobody benefits from seeing a nation like England or France beating San Marino 7-0. The Nation League aims to pit countries of similar standings against each other, by putting them into small groups. On top of this, these groups will have promotion and relegation and can be used as a way for nations to qualify for the next European Championships. Football fans can now look forward to seeing gigantic fixtures such as England vs Spain and Germany vs France. Irish fans will look forward to seeing the Boys in Green get their chance to get revenge on Christian Eriksen and Denmark, the cause of the nation's most painful footballing night since that Thierry Henry handball. For this study I use UEFA club coefficients as the base value for Europe’s top 14 countries. The top 14 leagues in Europe are presented below. Two national teams that stand out automatically are England and Italy. England sits in 16th place and 11th overall in the FIFA rankings excluding teams from outside of Europe. This is a dramatic drop when we consider that the Premier League is the second strongest league at the moment. The Italian national side is also struggling sitting in 14th place. On top of this, the Azzurri have failed to qualify for their first World Cup in 60 years. A game which was the catalyst for an earlier than expected international retirement of Juventus stopper Gianluigi Buffon. In 6th the Spanish national team is also slightly under performing in comparison to La Liga, but perhaps the Spanish national team can be forgiven for taking the foot off the gas somewhat having won 3 major tournaments in recent times. Finally, the Ukrainian national team is struggling to stay on a par with the Ukrainian National League regarding international standing. The Ukrainian national team has a current FIFA ranking of 35th while the Ukrainian National League sits 8th with UEFA rankings. Much of this can be explained by the success of Shakhtar Donetsk who continually do well in Europe by buying talented Brazilian players and selling them on for big profits. Players such as Willian (Chelsea), Fernandinho (Manchester City) and Douglas Costa (Juventus) are notable examples.
There are also many national teams that are out performing their national leagues on the club scene. These countries tend to be small but have big talent pools of players who play abroad. The most obvious example is Belgium. The Belgium national team currently sits 5th in the FIFA rankings and has held 1st in recent times. But thanks to the Premier League, in particular, many of their stars such as Eden Hazard (Chelsea), and Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City) play weekly at the highest level. What might be the reasons for difference between the national team and domestic league? It now consider some possible answers. Effect % Of Foreign Players In Leading National Leagues. With the recent success of both Spanish clubs and in particular the national team it should come as no surprise that out of Europe’s top 5 leagues, La Liga has the fewest % of foreign players at 42.8%. While England and Italy whose national teams have struggled in recent times have the highest % of players playing in their top leagues at 69.2% and 55.5%. Surprisingly 49.2% of players in the German Bundesliga are foreign, placing them smack in the middle of Italy and Spain. In club leagues with lower standards such as Belgium, Portugal, Austria and the Czech Republic their national teams are helped if their players move abroad to the top 5 leagues. Players get to play against the best domestically and in the Champions League which is a huge advantage when major competitions such as the World Cup come around. Effect of Population On The Standard Of Club and National Football Bigger populations tend to mean more players and more investment which means more quality players, which means a better standard. Although this is not always the case, take the United States for example. The US failed to qualify for Russia 2018 despite having a much bigger population than their qualifying opponents. On top of this the national team sits 25th in the current FIFA rankings. While Major League Soccer has improved in recent years, it is unlikely to ever reach the heights of Europe’s top 5 leagues, despite these countries having smaller populations. It is interesting to note according to UEFA rankings, Europe’s top four leagues are La Liga (Spain) 1st, Premier League (England) 2nd, Seria A (Italy) 3rd and Bundesliga (Germany) 4th. But these four nations are in the opposite order in terms of population. Germany 80.67 million, Italy 60.6 million, England 53.01 million and Spain 40.56 million. These four countries have some of Europe’s biggest populations. With a population of 45 million, just a million short of Spain, again it could be said that the both Ukrainian national team and club league under perform. Countries with relatively small populations doing particularly well at the moment include Switzerland whose national team have a world ranking of 8th. Dose The Standard Of Living Have An Effect On The Success Of The National Team? In extreme cases yes. Countries such as Germany and France have very high standards of living and they have both strong national and club football leagues. According to the World Economic Forum the five countries with the highest standard of living are; 1st Norway, 2nd Iceland, 3rd Luxembourg, 4th Switzerland and 5th Denmark. Only Switzerland can boast to be home of one of Europe’s top 14 football leagues. But, the Swedish and Icelandic national teams make it into FIFA’s top 20 national sides. By Robbie Butler
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) invite aapplications for the position of Research Assistant to work with a team currently undertaking research for the Gaelic Athletics Association (GAA) and Gaelic Players Association (GPA). The project is examining the welfare of senior inter-county players with a subsequent piece of player welfare research being conducted with inter-county managers and county-board secretaries. Currently, the team comprises one Research Professor, one Associate Research Professor, one Senior Research Officer and one Research Officer. More information can be found here. By Robbie Butler Rugby's Six Nations Championship kicks off tomorrow at 2.15pm when Wales host Scotland at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff. This time last year I wrote about the introduction of bonus points in the Championship for the first time and the possible rationale for the rule change. The 2017 tournament resulted in the award of 11 bonus points in total. 5 bonus points were awarded for scoring four or more tries while a further six were awarded as losing bonus points (losing by seven or fewer points). As one might expect, the 2017 winners England gained the most (winning 3 bonus points over their five games), while Ireland, France, Scotland and Wales all won two bonus points each. Only Italy did not benefit from the new system. It is to Italy I now turn. As the newest member of the group, joining in 2000, Italy have traditionally been the weakest team in the Championship. The Azzurri have collected the "wooden spoon" (award for finishing last) on 12 of the 18 times they have played in the Six Nations, including the last two years. As stated, the bonus points system failed to helped them last year. A more subtle problem might also be emerging. Given the relative weakness of Italy, the other teams could 'target' them for bonus points. England, France, Ireland and Scotland all won try bonus points from their games with Italy. The only other try bonus point was won by England in their victory over Scotland. This may be an unintended consequence of the rule change. An analysis of Italy's points difference from their first appearance in 2000 to last year's competition is presented below. As one might expect, the Italians have never recorded a positive points difference. What could be of concern for the country and rule makers is the 2017 observation, the last point on the graph. The country reported their biggest negative score ever, with a points difference of -151. This coincides with the introduction of bonus points. It is important to note, this is a single data point, and more are required before one can start to draw conclusions about any potential unintended effect the new rules have had on the Italians. It is interesting however. That said, their performance in 2016, before the bonus points system commenced, was their worst to date. Maybe the team is just weaker than ever before? Either way, it will be interesting to watch the Azzurri over the next six weeks to see if the trend continues. |
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