By John Considine
In my last post I pointed out how fouls by Waterford hurlers in the Munster hurling final resulted in a yellow card more than 50% of the time. This was well above what I would have expected. Little did I think that this ratio would be surpassed in the All-Ireland quarter-final. According to the RTE statistics from their broadcast, Cork hurlers committed only four fouls in the game, however, they attracted three yellow cards. And because one player got two of those cards, he received a red card and Cork were reduced to 14 players. Three yellow cards and one red card for four fouls seems a high ratio to me so I decided to look at the ratio for other games for which I have the RTE data.
When I looked at the data I was slightly surprised by the variation in the ratio of yellow cards to fouls. The table below shows a large variation in the number of fouls that became yellow cards. Cork's 75% in the All-Ireland quarter final is at one end while Kilkenny's 0% for 12 fouls in the Leinster final is at the other end.
There are some serious data limitations. First, the numbers for "fouls" only quantify the times the referee blew the whistle. Occasionally, the referee will allow the play to continue and issue a yellow card later. This occurred in the Galway-Cork game when Cyril Donnellan (Galway) was shown a yellow cards for a late tackle on Aidan Walsh. Second, there are only five games in the sample below. Many more games would be require to draw an definitive conclusions.
Allowing for these major data limitations, two points might be made. First, the two Leinster games had 49 fouls and 4 yellow cards while the two Munster games had 37 fouls and 12 yellow cards. Would there be a difference between Munster and Leinster games if we had a larger data set? Second, the two games with the highest ratios of yellow cards to fouls were refereed by James Owens. This is not to question his handling of the game. Moreover, ex-intercounty John Bannon has suggested, in an Irish Examiner article, that the referring display by James Owens was such that it might earn him the ultimate honour - being asked to referee the All-Ireland final. However, Owens' ratio is much higher than James McGrath who refereed the Dublin-Galway and Kilkenny-Galway games below. Again, it would be useful to see more data.
When I looked at the data I was slightly surprised by the variation in the ratio of yellow cards to fouls. The table below shows a large variation in the number of fouls that became yellow cards. Cork's 75% in the All-Ireland quarter final is at one end while Kilkenny's 0% for 12 fouls in the Leinster final is at the other end.
There are some serious data limitations. First, the numbers for "fouls" only quantify the times the referee blew the whistle. Occasionally, the referee will allow the play to continue and issue a yellow card later. This occurred in the Galway-Cork game when Cyril Donnellan (Galway) was shown a yellow cards for a late tackle on Aidan Walsh. Second, there are only five games in the sample below. Many more games would be require to draw an definitive conclusions.
Allowing for these major data limitations, two points might be made. First, the two Leinster games had 49 fouls and 4 yellow cards while the two Munster games had 37 fouls and 12 yellow cards. Would there be a difference between Munster and Leinster games if we had a larger data set? Second, the two games with the highest ratios of yellow cards to fouls were refereed by James Owens. This is not to question his handling of the game. Moreover, ex-intercounty John Bannon has suggested, in an Irish Examiner article, that the referring display by James Owens was such that it might earn him the ultimate honour - being asked to referee the All-Ireland final. However, Owens' ratio is much higher than James McGrath who refereed the Dublin-Galway and Kilkenny-Galway games below. Again, it would be useful to see more data.
Although unlikely to apply to the games above, there is one possibility for a difference in the translation of fouls to yellow cards. It involves the extent of player vocalisation. Recent experimental research published in the European Journal of Sport Science showed a significant difference between the number of yellow cards issued by the referees depending on players vocalisation. Heiko Lex and colleagues conducted an experiment where soccer referees were shown a range of potential foul situations on screen. All situations were shown with and without sound to different referees. Being able to hear the players' reactions made no statistical difference to the number of fouls awarded. However, being able to hear the players' reaction did increase the number of yellow cards. This is probably something most players know instinctively and some probably act accordingly. This research might reinforce this behaviour and/or it might help referees to guard against such biases in their decision making.
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