By David Butler
Is the magic of the FA cup being reignited? A shock loss at Plymouth last weekend meant that Liverpool were dumped out. Along with Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham exiting, is there a chance for a smaller club to lift the cup? Sure, Manchester City may likely still win the trophy, but at least we may get some variety.
Since the onset of the modern football era and the birth of the Premier League the ‘Big-6’ have taken up 44 (68%) of the finalist slots in the FA cup – this can even be considered the ‘Big-5’ as Tottenham have never reached an FA cup final in modern football. Over the last decade, only 4 out of the 20 finalists’ slots have been taken up by clubs outside of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea. Of these finals, we only saw one upset in the last ten years with Leicester defeating Chelsea.
A similar story can be told for the EFL cup – 41 out of the 66-places have been occupied by the ‘Big-6’. For the last decade, only 4 out of the twenty slots have been taken up by clubs outside of the Big-6. Two of these slots are by a wealthy and resurgent Newcastle, rather than a minnow. We will have to wait and see if Newcastle defeat Liverpool, but the other three non Big-6 finalists all lost. Manchester City have tended to dominate winning this competition recently.
There are various explanations for the growing concentration. In the early years of the modern football era the biggest clubs at the time often used these cup competitions to blood youth players. Arsene Wenger at Arsenal was particularly famous for this, and Manchester United revealed their priorities by withdrawing from the FA cup competition in 1999–2000. Things have changed a lot recently – the wealth of elite clubs, the demands of playing many fixtures, and injury concerns, has required top clubs to build NFL style rosters; it is now rare to see a variety of unknown under 21 players on a team sheet for a Big-6 club. Having deep squads – or perhaps hoarding talent – depending on how you want to look at this, means that these clubs can rotate players without significantly weakening themselves, so the likelihood of a shock exit is lower.
Perhaps the incentives for smaller clubs have changed too. Given the financial cost of relegation from the Premier League, there are clear incentives to prioritise survival over winning domestic cups. A run in the cup is fun, but the objective is to survive or to reach the Premier League. A similar argument can be made for mid-table clubs trying to reach the Champions League or achieve European football more generally; its a risky strategy to chase Europe via a Cup win, where pulling off a major upset in a final will likely be a requirement. Probably best to focus on the League.
Finally, there is the issue of competition design. Recent iterations of the League Cup for example have been seeded when the clubs participating in Europe enter. This has resulted in an even lower probability of a smaller team getting a lucky run to the final as the Big-6 rivals do not meet in early rounds. Are these changes due to broadcaster demands? Recent semi-finals of Tottenham vs Liverpool and Arsenal vs Newcastle are, of course, attractive products.
Is the magic of the FA cup being reignited? A shock loss at Plymouth last weekend meant that Liverpool were dumped out. Along with Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham exiting, is there a chance for a smaller club to lift the cup? Sure, Manchester City may likely still win the trophy, but at least we may get some variety.
Since the onset of the modern football era and the birth of the Premier League the ‘Big-6’ have taken up 44 (68%) of the finalist slots in the FA cup – this can even be considered the ‘Big-5’ as Tottenham have never reached an FA cup final in modern football. Over the last decade, only 4 out of the 20 finalists’ slots have been taken up by clubs outside of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea. Of these finals, we only saw one upset in the last ten years with Leicester defeating Chelsea.
A similar story can be told for the EFL cup – 41 out of the 66-places have been occupied by the ‘Big-6’. For the last decade, only 4 out of the twenty slots have been taken up by clubs outside of the Big-6. Two of these slots are by a wealthy and resurgent Newcastle, rather than a minnow. We will have to wait and see if Newcastle defeat Liverpool, but the other three non Big-6 finalists all lost. Manchester City have tended to dominate winning this competition recently.
There are various explanations for the growing concentration. In the early years of the modern football era the biggest clubs at the time often used these cup competitions to blood youth players. Arsene Wenger at Arsenal was particularly famous for this, and Manchester United revealed their priorities by withdrawing from the FA cup competition in 1999–2000. Things have changed a lot recently – the wealth of elite clubs, the demands of playing many fixtures, and injury concerns, has required top clubs to build NFL style rosters; it is now rare to see a variety of unknown under 21 players on a team sheet for a Big-6 club. Having deep squads – or perhaps hoarding talent – depending on how you want to look at this, means that these clubs can rotate players without significantly weakening themselves, so the likelihood of a shock exit is lower.
Perhaps the incentives for smaller clubs have changed too. Given the financial cost of relegation from the Premier League, there are clear incentives to prioritise survival over winning domestic cups. A run in the cup is fun, but the objective is to survive or to reach the Premier League. A similar argument can be made for mid-table clubs trying to reach the Champions League or achieve European football more generally; its a risky strategy to chase Europe via a Cup win, where pulling off a major upset in a final will likely be a requirement. Probably best to focus on the League.
Finally, there is the issue of competition design. Recent iterations of the League Cup for example have been seeded when the clubs participating in Europe enter. This has resulted in an even lower probability of a smaller team getting a lucky run to the final as the Big-6 rivals do not meet in early rounds. Are these changes due to broadcaster demands? Recent semi-finals of Tottenham vs Liverpool and Arsenal vs Newcastle are, of course, attractive products.
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