By Robbie Butler
“If only Ireland was in South America.” These were the words I used here in 2018 when Denmark ended our chances of qualifying for the World Cup in Russia.
We find ourselves in a familiar situation once again. The Danes may be on the horizon soon. Ireland are back in a UEFA playoff, this time facing Czechia and, should we advance, Denmark. The presence of Denmark on the path is an uncomfortable reminder of 2017, when they took the final European place at our expense. Some stories repeat themselves whether we want them to or not.
In 2018, I wrote about the challenges European teams face when qualifying for the World Cup, and how the structure of global qualification often highlights deep inequalities between confederations. Six years later, those themes have not only persisted — they have become even more noticeable.
Take Bolivia, for example. They have lost 10 of their 18 matches in South American qualifying and finished 7th out of 10 teams. Yet they remain alive, with a playoff route that runs through Suriname and then Iraq. To still be in contention after losing more than half of your matches is striking, and it calls attention to the contrast with UEFA.
Ireland’s potential opponents — Denmark (ranked 21st) and Czechia (ranked 44th) — are considerably stronger than Bolivia’s possible playoff rivals. Suriname, ranked outside the top 120, and Iraq, ranked in the 50s, present a very different competitive landscape. The disparity in difficulty is hard to ignore.
The 2026 World Cup expansion was expected to ease the pressure on European teams. UEFA does indeed have additional places, and the playoff format now includes group runners-up plus high-performing Nations League sides. But in practice, the challenge remains steep. Strong teams are concentrated in Europe, and the playoff system continues to produce paths where competitive balance varies dramatically from one confederation to another.
In 2018, I suggested that geography plays an outsized role in determining who qualifies. The evidence today still supports that view. South America’s round-robin format ensures that even teams with poor records remain within reach of qualification. Other regions, too, offer second chances that would be unthinkable in Europe, where a single dip in form can drop a team from automatic qualification into a high-pressure playoff against well-ranked opponents.
This is not to criticise Bolivia or any other nation taking advantage of the system in place. Every team can only play the matches assigned to them. But it does raise a broader question about global competitive balance, and whether expansion alone is enough to address long-standing structural differences across confederations.
For Ireland, the task is once again a demanding one. Czechia are well-organised and experienced in knockout scenarios, and Denmark need no introduction. Our route involves difficult, tightly contested European fixtures, while elsewhere teams with significantly weaker records continue to progress.
In 2018, I concluded with the thought that things might be different “if only Ireland was in South America.” Today, looking at the contrasting paths laid out for the 2026 qualifiers, that sentiment still resonates. The World Cup may be expanding, but the inequalities in qualifying remain very much intact.
“If only Ireland was in South America.” These were the words I used here in 2018 when Denmark ended our chances of qualifying for the World Cup in Russia.
We find ourselves in a familiar situation once again. The Danes may be on the horizon soon. Ireland are back in a UEFA playoff, this time facing Czechia and, should we advance, Denmark. The presence of Denmark on the path is an uncomfortable reminder of 2017, when they took the final European place at our expense. Some stories repeat themselves whether we want them to or not.
In 2018, I wrote about the challenges European teams face when qualifying for the World Cup, and how the structure of global qualification often highlights deep inequalities between confederations. Six years later, those themes have not only persisted — they have become even more noticeable.
Take Bolivia, for example. They have lost 10 of their 18 matches in South American qualifying and finished 7th out of 10 teams. Yet they remain alive, with a playoff route that runs through Suriname and then Iraq. To still be in contention after losing more than half of your matches is striking, and it calls attention to the contrast with UEFA.
Ireland’s potential opponents — Denmark (ranked 21st) and Czechia (ranked 44th) — are considerably stronger than Bolivia’s possible playoff rivals. Suriname, ranked outside the top 120, and Iraq, ranked in the 50s, present a very different competitive landscape. The disparity in difficulty is hard to ignore.
The 2026 World Cup expansion was expected to ease the pressure on European teams. UEFA does indeed have additional places, and the playoff format now includes group runners-up plus high-performing Nations League sides. But in practice, the challenge remains steep. Strong teams are concentrated in Europe, and the playoff system continues to produce paths where competitive balance varies dramatically from one confederation to another.
In 2018, I suggested that geography plays an outsized role in determining who qualifies. The evidence today still supports that view. South America’s round-robin format ensures that even teams with poor records remain within reach of qualification. Other regions, too, offer second chances that would be unthinkable in Europe, where a single dip in form can drop a team from automatic qualification into a high-pressure playoff against well-ranked opponents.
This is not to criticise Bolivia or any other nation taking advantage of the system in place. Every team can only play the matches assigned to them. But it does raise a broader question about global competitive balance, and whether expansion alone is enough to address long-standing structural differences across confederations.
For Ireland, the task is once again a demanding one. Czechia are well-organised and experienced in knockout scenarios, and Denmark need no introduction. Our route involves difficult, tightly contested European fixtures, while elsewhere teams with significantly weaker records continue to progress.
In 2018, I concluded with the thought that things might be different “if only Ireland was in South America.” Today, looking at the contrasting paths laid out for the 2026 qualifiers, that sentiment still resonates. The World Cup may be expanding, but the inequalities in qualifying remain very much intact.
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