By Daragh O'Leary
Unfortunately for me, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are now officially set to go another season without winning a trophy. Arsenal’s FA Cup victory in 2020 was the last major honour the Gunners secured and with their recent 2-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain, Arteta’s men confirmed that they won’t be able to make the Champions League final in Munich this year. The European Cup was their last hope of collecting a trophy to take the bad look off what has been quite a miserable season.
Despite this, I still find myself a staunch supporter of Mikel Arteta and everything he is doing at the Emirates. Why? I believe in the use of probabilistic modelling in football. Allow me to explain.
Economists, or at least empirical economists, spend a lot of their time trying to deal with issues concerning causality. For example, given the role that technological advancement plays in determining log-run economic growth, a lot of economists study innovation to identify its causes. A firm introducing a new product could be considered an innovation, so many economists have looked to identify what leads to this happening.
Common inputs of innovation include human capital, R&D, and collaborations with external parties. All of these variables positively contribute to the probability that a firm may innovate, but it should be noted that none of these variables are deterministic inputs of innovation. What I mean by this is that they don’t guarantee that innovation will happen, they simply increase the likelihood that it might. A similar approach is taken by football coaches to winning trophies.
When Manchester City won the Champions League Final the deterministic parameters which made this happen were that they scored a goal and Inter Milan didn’t. We know that this is exactly what caused Man City to win not only because when it happened, they won the cup, but had it not happened (i.e., Inter Milan scored and Man City didn’t, Man City wouldn’t have won the cup). Econometricians call this a counterfactual proof. While this explains how Man City won the final, it isn’t all that helpful to coaches as a model for general success – just score and don’t concede!
As good as he is, Pep Guardiola didn’t buy Rodri because he knew that he’d need him to score in the Champions League Final. He bought Rodri because he knew Rodri would be a good player which would increase the overall probability that his team would have the ball when played in a certain way, thereby increasing the number of chances they might create which should maximise the probability of winning a football match.
Unfortunately for Mikel Arteta, and Pep for most his tenure at City and all his time at Bayern Munich, probabilistic modelling doesn’t guarantee a certain outcome. You can have great players, great tactics, create great chances, and still not win. Arsenal managed to create several great chances last night (see graph below) and for the most part they played quite well.
Unfortunately for me, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are now officially set to go another season without winning a trophy. Arsenal’s FA Cup victory in 2020 was the last major honour the Gunners secured and with their recent 2-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain, Arteta’s men confirmed that they won’t be able to make the Champions League final in Munich this year. The European Cup was their last hope of collecting a trophy to take the bad look off what has been quite a miserable season.
Despite this, I still find myself a staunch supporter of Mikel Arteta and everything he is doing at the Emirates. Why? I believe in the use of probabilistic modelling in football. Allow me to explain.
Economists, or at least empirical economists, spend a lot of their time trying to deal with issues concerning causality. For example, given the role that technological advancement plays in determining log-run economic growth, a lot of economists study innovation to identify its causes. A firm introducing a new product could be considered an innovation, so many economists have looked to identify what leads to this happening.
Common inputs of innovation include human capital, R&D, and collaborations with external parties. All of these variables positively contribute to the probability that a firm may innovate, but it should be noted that none of these variables are deterministic inputs of innovation. What I mean by this is that they don’t guarantee that innovation will happen, they simply increase the likelihood that it might. A similar approach is taken by football coaches to winning trophies.
When Manchester City won the Champions League Final the deterministic parameters which made this happen were that they scored a goal and Inter Milan didn’t. We know that this is exactly what caused Man City to win not only because when it happened, they won the cup, but had it not happened (i.e., Inter Milan scored and Man City didn’t, Man City wouldn’t have won the cup). Econometricians call this a counterfactual proof. While this explains how Man City won the final, it isn’t all that helpful to coaches as a model for general success – just score and don’t concede!
As good as he is, Pep Guardiola didn’t buy Rodri because he knew that he’d need him to score in the Champions League Final. He bought Rodri because he knew Rodri would be a good player which would increase the overall probability that his team would have the ball when played in a certain way, thereby increasing the number of chances they might create which should maximise the probability of winning a football match.
Unfortunately for Mikel Arteta, and Pep for most his tenure at City and all his time at Bayern Munich, probabilistic modelling doesn’t guarantee a certain outcome. You can have great players, great tactics, create great chances, and still not win. Arsenal managed to create several great chances last night (see graph below) and for the most part they played quite well.
Had Rice put his header away, Martinelli scored in the box, Ødegaard’s shot not been saved so brilliantly by Donnarumma, or Saka not missed an open goal maybe Arsenal fans would be a lot happier right now.
Unfortunately, excellence in sport is fragile and decided by marginal wins. All Arteta can do is continue to set up his team in a way which he believes maximises their chances of winning football matches. Both Pep and Jurgen Klopp took City and Liverpool to 3 Champions League finals each and both only managed to win one of them. Maybe Arteta will come out on the right side of a trophy next season.
Unfortunately, excellence in sport is fragile and decided by marginal wins. All Arteta can do is continue to set up his team in a way which he believes maximises their chances of winning football matches. Both Pep and Jurgen Klopp took City and Liverpool to 3 Champions League finals each and both only managed to win one of them. Maybe Arteta will come out on the right side of a trophy next season.
RSS Feed
