Outcome Uncertainty in Hurling

By John Considine

A few weeks ago I posted a picture designed to illustrate the excitment in the 2025 Senior Hurling Championship.  The Munster Hurling Final between Limerick and Cork stood out as the most exciting game of 2025.  However, there was a caveat.  The games in the picture were only those games shown on the national broadcaster (RTE).  By virtue of being broadcast on RTE these games attracted the largest audiences and were, therefore, likely to be remembered as the most exciting by most people.  In that post I noted that the most exciting game of the 2025 season, according to the measures that I was using, was not listed.  That game was between Dublin and Offaly.  On Saturday, the 2026 version of the game was broadcast on GAA+.  Below are some measures of the outcome uncertainty and excitment in that contest.

There were 56 scores in the game.  It ended level on a scoreline of 4-22 to 2-28.  The last score of the game came just under a minute from the end of a game that lasted close to 75 minutes.  If one were to look at the scoreboard after each of the 56 scores then the most common margin between the teams was a 2 point lead for Dublin as illustrated below by the largest blue bar.  The teams were level on 9 occassions.  Offaly never led by more than 2 points and Dublin never led by more than 4 points.

One can understand why those who watched the game felt it was a good game.  Plenty of scores.  The game within one score (or three points) for the vast majority of the time.  The outcome determined 1% of the time from the end of the game.  I'm not so sure about the views of a man from Offaly that I met the following day.  He suggested Offaly should have won.  A knowledgable hurling man but I'm not sure the above picture would support his views.  That said, those green and gold bars came from the closing stages of the second half.  He could be correct.