By John Considine
Yesterday, I examined the Leinster Senior Football Championship. It seems fair to suggest that the competition has become less competitive over the last decade. Dublin won 10 of the 15 Leinster titles on offer since 2000. They have won 9 of last 10. Further evidence of the concentration of titles is provided in the graph below. Using a 10-year rolling measure of concentration, the graph shows that the distribution of titles has never been as concentrated as it currently stands (at least since 1950).
As of now, there is very little in terms of competitive balance in Leinster Senior Football. However, one only has to go back a decade to find a time when the LSFC was at its most competitive. In 2005, Meath had won 3 of the last 10 titles. Dublin and Kildare had two titles each. Laois, Offaly and Westmeath had one title each.
As of now, there is very little in terms of competitive balance in Leinster Senior Football. However, one only has to go back a decade to find a time when the LSFC was at its most competitive. In 2005, Meath had won 3 of the last 10 titles. Dublin and Kildare had two titles each. Laois, Offaly and Westmeath had one title each.
Economists argue that an important part of the sports product is uncertainty of outcome. Therefore, we might expect to see attendances decline as the LSFC has become more concentrated. Has that happened? It is difficult to say. It is especially difficult to say in a championship that has a knockout structure. The main reason for this is the difference in the fan base for different teams. The population of Dublin is 1,273,079 while that of Longford is 39,000. Games involving Dublin will attract more spectators. If Dublin are knocked out at an early stage of the championship then attendances for the overall championship will decline. Because different counties progressed to different stages, it is difficult to see the relationship between competitive balance and attendance.
There is another problem. Not all of the games are played on their own. Frequently, games are doubled up. Will two games played at the one venue on a given day attract a greater aggregate attendance than those games played separately? Again, it is difficult to say. It is further complicated where games from a different competition are played together with games from the LSFC.
Given the above, the attendance data has to be treated with extreme caution. The attendances relative to 2005 are presented in the graph below. The dashed red line is for the finals. With the exception of 2010, all the finals involved Dublin. It is not surprising that the 2010 final attracted lower numbers. However, the 2011 final has the lowest attendance. Maybe the Dublin fans were losing confidence in the team. The team subsequently went on to win the All-Ireland later in the year and there was a bounce in the figures for 2012.
The solid blue line represents the aggregate attendance for the 4 quarter-finals, 2 semi-finals, and final (replays are ignored). Those figures show a fairly steady decline. The blip in 2007 is because it was not possible to exclude a Dublin replay as it was played as a double-header with another game.
It is worth repeating that it is very difficult to say, based on this data, if there is a relationship between competitiveness and attendances. The decline in attendance figures in Leinster football are not vastly different to those in the Munster Senior Hurling championship that I discussed last week (here).
There is another problem. Not all of the games are played on their own. Frequently, games are doubled up. Will two games played at the one venue on a given day attract a greater aggregate attendance than those games played separately? Again, it is difficult to say. It is further complicated where games from a different competition are played together with games from the LSFC.
Given the above, the attendance data has to be treated with extreme caution. The attendances relative to 2005 are presented in the graph below. The dashed red line is for the finals. With the exception of 2010, all the finals involved Dublin. It is not surprising that the 2010 final attracted lower numbers. However, the 2011 final has the lowest attendance. Maybe the Dublin fans were losing confidence in the team. The team subsequently went on to win the All-Ireland later in the year and there was a bounce in the figures for 2012.
The solid blue line represents the aggregate attendance for the 4 quarter-finals, 2 semi-finals, and final (replays are ignored). Those figures show a fairly steady decline. The blip in 2007 is because it was not possible to exclude a Dublin replay as it was played as a double-header with another game.
It is worth repeating that it is very difficult to say, based on this data, if there is a relationship between competitiveness and attendances. The decline in attendance figures in Leinster football are not vastly different to those in the Munster Senior Hurling championship that I discussed last week (here).
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