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Incentives In Cup Competitions And European Qualification

29/5/2025

 
By Robbie Butler

In the not-too-distant past, the only way to compete in the premier European football competition—the European Cup/Champions League—was to win your domestic league title. The system was effectively closed to all others. I recently addressed this here and how changes to the Europa League may have created a de facto extra place for the big leagues.

The incentives have changed too. Take the Premier League, for example. The easiest route to the Champions League may no longer be via the traditional route—finishing in the top four (or now five)—but rather through a cup competition.

Many of the top teams field weakened sides in the EFL Cup and FA Cup. The EFL Cup, in particular, is notorious for top clubs using second-string lineups, especially in the early rounds. The FA Cup isn't much different. Premier League champions Liverpool were famously knocked out by Plymouth, who were subsequently relegated to the third tier of English football. This was largely due to the team Liverpool fielded, which included fringe players and others who don’t regularly make the league matchday squad.

The success of both Newcastle and Crystal Palace was no doubt aided by some of the bigger clubs not fielding their best elevens in the early rounds of these competitions. Both clubs will care little for this—nor should they—and they will play in the 2025/26 Europa League.

The changed competition structure means they now have a genuine chance of going deep into the tournament. Their main threats are likely to come from domestic rivals like Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. Abroad, Real Betis, Celta Vigo, SC Freiburg, and Roma are probably the key foreign dangers. Beyond that, one would expect Premier League clubs to have the upper hand against most other teams.

Clubs like Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest arguably have a better chance of winning the Europa League than breaking into the top four or five league spots over a 38-game season, especially with the financial and squad depth advantages enjoyed by the likes of Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City. For mid-tier clubs, it simply makes more sense to target cup competitions than to aim for consistency in the league.

Tottenham have shown this strategy to great effect: finishing 17th in the Premier League and winning the Europa League.

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