By Stephen Brosnan
Recently, Phil Taylor failed to reach the Premier League Darts play-offs for the first time in his career following a 7-5 defeat to Gary Anderson. Since its inception in 2005, Taylor has won the League a record 6 times, including a 44 game unbeaten run between 2005 and 2008. So what has caused Taylor’s failure in the 2015 league? One logical view is that darts has become more competitive over time. There are a number of ways in which the degree of competition between players can be measured. One common measurement is the Herfindahl Index of Competitive Balance (HICB). Figure 1 shows the HICB for the PDC Premier League between 2007 and 2015.
Recently, Phil Taylor failed to reach the Premier League Darts play-offs for the first time in his career following a 7-5 defeat to Gary Anderson. Since its inception in 2005, Taylor has won the League a record 6 times, including a 44 game unbeaten run between 2005 and 2008. So what has caused Taylor’s failure in the 2015 league? One logical view is that darts has become more competitive over time. There are a number of ways in which the degree of competition between players can be measured. One common measurement is the Herfindahl Index of Competitive Balance (HICB). Figure 1 shows the HICB for the PDC Premier League between 2007 and 2015.
Between 2007 and 2011, the PDC League actually became less competitive. During this period Phil Taylor won the league 3 out of the 5 years with James Wade and Gary Anderson recording one win each. However, since 2012 the PDC Premier League has become more competitive. This has coincided with the increase in the number of players in 2013 from 8 to 10. Since this increase, Phil Taylor has failed to win the league with Dutch players Michael Van Gerwen and Raymond Van Barneveld winning in 2013 and 2014 respectively. So far 2015 has been the most competitive year of the league since its inception with a HICB Index of 151.07. Another argument is that Phil Taylor’s scoring is not as good as in years gone by. Figure 2 highlights Taylor’s average PDC score against the league average between 2007 and 2015.
Figure 2 indicates that despite his relative drought in league wins in recent years and Taylor’s failure to qualify for the playoffs this year, he is still performing above the league average. Taylor’s average has actually grown on average annually since 2007 by 1.94%. However, the rest of the league has been closing the gap on Taylor with the average score of the PDC league growing by 4.60% annually. So the numbers seem to indicate that Phil Taylor still has ‘the power’ that has seen him dominate the sport for so long. However, the problem for Taylor is that competitiveness in the league is getting stronger.
Stephen Brosnan is a research assistant in the Department of Economics, University College Cork.
Stephen Brosnan is a research assistant in the Department of Economics, University College Cork.
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