By David Butler
Some months back I had an entry on football standards across divisions. I charted the output declines of top scorers contracted to promoted clubs upon reaching the top of the football pyramid. On average an expected goals rate of ~15 reduces to ~5 when strikers move to the elite tier in England. About 6 assists per season reduce to about 2.
Of course Arsenal's new star signing Gykores is not contracted to a promoted club, so this ‘extreme’ deflator would not be applicable, but it is unlikely he will replicate his past 4 seasons xG and xA form that took place in lower quality leagues. Expectations seem very high given his scoring rate and performances, but will we see an xG of 19.2 and 19.5 (Coventry – Championship) or 22.5 and 30.8 (Porto – Primeira Liga)? I doubt it.
Some months back I had an entry on football standards across divisions. I charted the output declines of top scorers contracted to promoted clubs upon reaching the top of the football pyramid. On average an expected goals rate of ~15 reduces to ~5 when strikers move to the elite tier in England. About 6 assists per season reduce to about 2.
Of course Arsenal's new star signing Gykores is not contracted to a promoted club, so this ‘extreme’ deflator would not be applicable, but it is unlikely he will replicate his past 4 seasons xG and xA form that took place in lower quality leagues. Expectations seem very high given his scoring rate and performances, but will we see an xG of 19.2 and 19.5 (Coventry – Championship) or 22.5 and 30.8 (Porto – Primeira Liga)? I doubt it.
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