By Robbie Butler
As is tradition at this time of the year, we turn our attention to horse racing and the famous Galway Racing Fesitval. For this unfamilir with this event, the Galway Racing Festival is a highly anticipated annual horse racing event held in Galway, Ireland. The festival takes place over seven days, typically starting on the last Monday of July and running through the first Sunday of August. It is one of the premier racing events in Ireland, attracting large crowds, including both locals and visitors.
Our blog has regualrly used this Festival to test the efficient market hypothesis. In the early days of this blog, Dermot Weld horses were followed. In more recent years, this has chanaged to Willie Mullins. Mullins managed to beat the market consistently, until last year. Last August I wrote about this and questioned whether betting markets had fgured this out:
"For the past 5 seasons, a even stake on all Mullins' runners during the Festival had proved to be a strategy that could successfully beat the market. Horses priced 9/2 or shorter were "win" stakes, while 5/1 or longer priced horses were backed each-way.
In total 62 horses were run by the trainer. Things were going very well from Day 1 to Day 4 with a return of more than 30%. The last three days proved to be poor. By Friday, the return was still 6% but by the last race on Sunday evening, a 9% loss was the outcome.
It may be that the trainer just had a slightly poorer meeting that previous years. An 11th winner may have returned a profit. a 12th win would almost certainly have done so. It could also be that the bookies have figured this strategy out and are pricing the horses accordingly. Or maybe it is both of the above."
What better chance that to test this and see. Can our strategy beat the market or have we been figured out?
As is tradition at this time of the year, we turn our attention to horse racing and the famous Galway Racing Fesitval. For this unfamilir with this event, the Galway Racing Festival is a highly anticipated annual horse racing event held in Galway, Ireland. The festival takes place over seven days, typically starting on the last Monday of July and running through the first Sunday of August. It is one of the premier racing events in Ireland, attracting large crowds, including both locals and visitors.
Our blog has regualrly used this Festival to test the efficient market hypothesis. In the early days of this blog, Dermot Weld horses were followed. In more recent years, this has chanaged to Willie Mullins. Mullins managed to beat the market consistently, until last year. Last August I wrote about this and questioned whether betting markets had fgured this out:
"For the past 5 seasons, a even stake on all Mullins' runners during the Festival had proved to be a strategy that could successfully beat the market. Horses priced 9/2 or shorter were "win" stakes, while 5/1 or longer priced horses were backed each-way.
In total 62 horses were run by the trainer. Things were going very well from Day 1 to Day 4 with a return of more than 30%. The last three days proved to be poor. By Friday, the return was still 6% but by the last race on Sunday evening, a 9% loss was the outcome.
It may be that the trainer just had a slightly poorer meeting that previous years. An 11th winner may have returned a profit. a 12th win would almost certainly have done so. It could also be that the bookies have figured this strategy out and are pricing the horses accordingly. Or maybe it is both of the above."
What better chance that to test this and see. Can our strategy beat the market or have we been figured out?
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