By David Butler
This is the fifth season where we will follow the pundit to consider the predictive success of Sky Sports pundit Paul Merson and BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson for English Premier League matches.
A similar pattern has emerged over the past few seasons – in any given gameweek the pundits typically call half of the outcomes correctly. Typically they get one score line correct too. For 17/18 season if you were to place €1 on each of their score line predictions, Lawrenson would have turned a profit of €58.81 by predicting 12% of the score lines correctly. Following Merson's score line estimates with a €1 stake per match rendered a loss of -€47.77.
The table below is for the first week of fixtures for this season based on a €1 stake. I look at betting on the score lines suggested by the pundits and also just on the outcomes.
This is the fifth season where we will follow the pundit to consider the predictive success of Sky Sports pundit Paul Merson and BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson for English Premier League matches.
A similar pattern has emerged over the past few seasons – in any given gameweek the pundits typically call half of the outcomes correctly. Typically they get one score line correct too. For 17/18 season if you were to place €1 on each of their score line predictions, Lawrenson would have turned a profit of €58.81 by predicting 12% of the score lines correctly. Following Merson's score line estimates with a €1 stake per match rendered a loss of -€47.77.
The table below is for the first week of fixtures for this season based on a €1 stake. I look at betting on the score lines suggested by the pundits and also just on the outcomes.
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