By John Considine
As sports fans we often resemble the Jim Carrey character in Dumb and Dumber. We can translate the smallest of probabilities into exaggerated hope. Broadcasters play on it by producing some statistic that shows how the competitor that is ahead is prone to giving up a lead (or that the competitor that is behind is one of the better competitors at turning things around). There's a chance. An education in economics can innoculate a person but at a cost. It can make hope seem dim and dimmer.
I was reminded of this at the weekend by two economists. On Saturday, Ipswich were two goals up on QPR at halftime. A victory would ensure automatic promotion to the Premier League. At that point in time, I reminded an Ipswich fan, and economist, that Cork were 2 goals (or 6 points) ahead at halftime during the 2025 All-Ireland hurling final. Cork would end up losing that game. I suggested Ipswich might also lose. His reply read, "No chance". Ipswich won.
At halftime in the 2025 All-Ireland hurling final, one might have been inclined to think that Cork would win. No team during the 2025 hurling championship had come from 6 points behind to win a game - until Tipperary did it to beat Cork in the final. This is illustrated below where the thick red line is the All-Ireland final. Tipperary had a chance (and a good chance given that they unlucky to be 2 goals behind). The size of the turnaround was unusual.
I was reminded of this at the weekend by two economists. On Saturday, Ipswich were two goals up on QPR at halftime. A victory would ensure automatic promotion to the Premier League. At that point in time, I reminded an Ipswich fan, and economist, that Cork were 2 goals (or 6 points) ahead at halftime during the 2025 All-Ireland hurling final. Cork would end up losing that game. I suggested Ipswich might also lose. His reply read, "No chance". Ipswich won.
At halftime in the 2025 All-Ireland hurling final, one might have been inclined to think that Cork would win. No team during the 2025 hurling championship had come from 6 points behind to win a game - until Tipperary did it to beat Cork in the final. This is illustrated below where the thick red line is the All-Ireland final. Tipperary had a chance (and a good chance given that they unlucky to be 2 goals behind). The size of the turnaround was unusual.
Hurling-commentators frequently suggest that a large lead is easily overturned in hurling. An economist I know can be "triggered" by such suggestions. The data supports the economist. But it can happen. And, with better odds than made Jim Carrey happy.
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