By Robbie Butler
As is normal for this week of the year, we turn our attention to Cheltenham. Over the past four years of this blog, I and others on this blog, have attempted to beat the market, with varying levels of success.
Since 2009 my record stands 3-6. I really need 2018 to be a good year as the bookies are getting away.
In the past I have attempted to beat the market by selecting my own picks (and here), following the favourite, and backing Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh ridden horses.
The only year of the four that was successful was when we followed Ruby. And we will do just that this year with a €2 stake on all Ruby Walsh ridden horses. The stake will be placed each way if the horse 5/1 or more.
Daily updates to follow.
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 1
A very good start to the week. Ruby Walsh had 5 mounts on the opening day, resulting in a stake of €10. Two winners (Footpad (5/6) and Benie Des Dieux (9/2)) were registered.
Stake Day 1: €10
Return: €14.67
Profit/Loss on Day 1: €4.67
Overall Profit/Loss: €4.67
Overall % Return on Investment: 46.7%
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 2
A disaster on day two as Ruby fractures his leg in the 2nd race, ruling him out for the week. Having finished 3rd in the first race yesterday, the official return on the day is;
Stake Day 2: €4
Return: €0
Profit/Loss on Day 1: -€4
Overall Profit/Loss: €0.67
Overall % Return on Investment: 4.79%
However, for the purposes on this exercise we can continue by assuming Ruby would have ridden the horses he was booked to ride and and include the two races he was present for (Races 1 and 2).
Stake: €10
Return: €2.50
Profit/Loss on Day 2: -€7.50
Overall Profit/Loss: -€2.83
Overall % Return on Investment: -14.15%
For the final two days, will follow Paul Townend, the second string jockey of trainer Willie Mullins. Paul will ride the ride the horses Ruby Walsh would probably have ridden, and whilst not perfect, it will allow us to continue this study.
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 3
The third day proved to be an excellent one for Paul Townend. Four mounts returned two winner. Current state of play as follows:
Stake Day 3: €8
Return: €19.54
Profit/Loss on Day 3: €11.54
Overall Profit/Loss: €8.71
Overall % Return on Investment: 31.1%
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 4
Five mounts on the final day did not herald a victory, and we had to make do with a second in the opening race at odds of 8/1. Final day and overall return as follows:
Stake Day 3: €10
Return: €2.60
Profit/Loss on Day 4: -€7.40
Overall Profit/Loss: €1.31
Overall % Return on Investment: 3.45%
The market is beaten for the 4th time in a decade. The score going into 2019 reads 4-6.
As is normal for this week of the year, we turn our attention to Cheltenham. Over the past four years of this blog, I and others on this blog, have attempted to beat the market, with varying levels of success.
Since 2009 my record stands 3-6. I really need 2018 to be a good year as the bookies are getting away.
In the past I have attempted to beat the market by selecting my own picks (and here), following the favourite, and backing Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh ridden horses.
The only year of the four that was successful was when we followed Ruby. And we will do just that this year with a €2 stake on all Ruby Walsh ridden horses. The stake will be placed each way if the horse 5/1 or more.
Daily updates to follow.
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 1
A very good start to the week. Ruby Walsh had 5 mounts on the opening day, resulting in a stake of €10. Two winners (Footpad (5/6) and Benie Des Dieux (9/2)) were registered.
Stake Day 1: €10
Return: €14.67
Profit/Loss on Day 1: €4.67
Overall Profit/Loss: €4.67
Overall % Return on Investment: 46.7%
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 2
A disaster on day two as Ruby fractures his leg in the 2nd race, ruling him out for the week. Having finished 3rd in the first race yesterday, the official return on the day is;
Stake Day 2: €4
Return: €0
Profit/Loss on Day 1: -€4
Overall Profit/Loss: €0.67
Overall % Return on Investment: 4.79%
However, for the purposes on this exercise we can continue by assuming Ruby would have ridden the horses he was booked to ride and and include the two races he was present for (Races 1 and 2).
Stake: €10
Return: €2.50
Profit/Loss on Day 2: -€7.50
Overall Profit/Loss: -€2.83
Overall % Return on Investment: -14.15%
For the final two days, will follow Paul Townend, the second string jockey of trainer Willie Mullins. Paul will ride the ride the horses Ruby Walsh would probably have ridden, and whilst not perfect, it will allow us to continue this study.
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 3
The third day proved to be an excellent one for Paul Townend. Four mounts returned two winner. Current state of play as follows:
Stake Day 3: €8
Return: €19.54
Profit/Loss on Day 3: €11.54
Overall Profit/Loss: €8.71
Overall % Return on Investment: 31.1%
**************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 4
Five mounts on the final day did not herald a victory, and we had to make do with a second in the opening race at odds of 8/1. Final day and overall return as follows:
Stake Day 3: €10
Return: €2.60
Profit/Loss on Day 4: -€7.40
Overall Profit/Loss: €1.31
Overall % Return on Investment: 3.45%
The market is beaten for the 4th time in a decade. The score going into 2019 reads 4-6.
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