The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links

Half-Points, Ryder Cups And Short Memories

29/9/2025

 
By Robbie Butler]
​
Viktor Hovland was forced to withdraw from his singles match at the Ryder Cup after aggravating a neck injury he has been dealing with for several months. The issue first flared up during Saturday’s foursomes, when he felt pain and stiffness, and despite treatment he couldn’t recover in time for Sunday. An MRI revealed a bulging disc, and while he attempted to warm up for his scheduled match against Harris English, he ultimately couldn’t rotate his neck enough to compete.

I did not know this before yesterday, but the Ryder Cup has a special safeguard for these situations. Rule 3.d of the Ryder Cup Captains’ Agreement states: “When the Captains lodge their team selection for singles play, they must provide a sealed envelope containing the name of one player who is regarded as having been paired with a player who, through illness, injury or other emergency reason, has to withdraw from the other side. Such pairing is regarded as a tied match.”

Before the singles session, each captain submits one name in a sealed envelope as a backup. If a player on the opposing team is unable to play, the named player from the other side also sits out, and the match is automatically halved. In this case, English was the unlucky American drawn, meaning his contest with Hovland was scratched and each team was awarded half a point. The rule meant only 11 singles matches were contested instead of the usual 12, something that hasn’t happened in decades – I’ll return to this shortly.

I was surprised that Europe won ½ a point, but that is the formal rule, despite some criticism from the U.S. side, with calls to review whether halving the match is fair compared to simply awarding a full point to the fit player. The half-point allocation left Europe and the U.S. on 12–5. Just two more points would be needed for Europe to retain the trophy. Although the U.S. staged a spirited fightback in the singles session, Europe managed to hold on, eventually clinching a 15–13 victory. Even allocating the U.S. a full point would have left the outcome unchanged, with the final score reading 14.5–13.5.

And the U.S. needs to recall 1991 at Kiawah Island. American golfer Steve Pate was unable to play in the Sunday singles. His match with David Gilford was deemed a tie – ½ point each. Had Europe been awarded the full point – as the U.S. argued for yesterday – the score in 1991 would have ended 14–14 rather than 14.5–13.5. The outcome would have been a draw, rather than a U.S. win. A draw would have meant the holders retained the trophy. The 1989 Ryder Cup was also a draw, so the last winners had been Europe in 1987 at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. A famous European victory courtesy of an Irishman in Dublin – how apt. In that case, Europe would have retained the trophy in 1991 rather than lost, and Bernhard Langer’s career would be remembered for different reasons by some.

As economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said, “Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.” And in golf.

Getting the Chop

26/9/2025

 
By David Butler

Sacking a manager in football is rarely cheap. Their coaching team usually go with them and multiple severance packages ensue. A replacement team need to be recruited and typically want guarantees of future transfer funds. If the new managerial appointment is not unattached further compensation will be required.  Of course all of this upheaval happens because clubs can’t/won’t sack the players.

Why sack? I suppose there might be an opportunity cost of having a ‘do nothing’ policy; risk of relegation, lost European qualification places etc – performance declines typically map into revenues losses. Club boards often may view a sacking as damage limitation despite the high costs. Perhaps they are thinking that given the uncertainty, we don’t know how bad this could get? That said, while some sackings may seem economically justified in the short term, they may simply recycle the same problems within clubs.

There is a large literature on the effect of managerial change, but not as much is known about the process of losing your job.  Of course, we know it is almost always down to performances (although Nuno is a recent exception), but what type of losses matters most and how many? Is there a ‘beyond the point of rescue’ stage?  Robbie had an entry below some weeks back on how incentives are changing here given the size of managerial contracts.

Graham Potter’s head is now on the chopping block and the chart below shows the market odds for him to be the next manager sacked – it almost now looks inevitable. Odds for Potter to be sacked tumbled after an opening day loss. He got brief reprieves due to other clubs’ poor performances and a win at Nottingham Forest only for the odds to shorten and not recover following a 3-0 defeat at home to Tottenham. David Moyes could put the final nail in the coffin this weekend. 
Picture

Folk Beliefs and Fast Thinking: An Empirical Test of the Coffin Trap in Greyhound Racing

18/9/2025

 
By Robbie Butler

I am delighted to report our latest publication success in Behavioral Economcis Review. The sport in question - greyhound racing - is lagrely overlooked in the sports economic literature.

We test whether the dog drawn in Trap 4 - the Coffin Trap - is less likely to win any given race. Our motivation? Many intuitions evolve into folk beliefs that are shared and persist within a community. These offer dubious cues to influence decision-making. We examine a natural setting where folk belief can be empirically testable: the sport of greyhound racing. This community maintain that greyhounds drawn in Trap 4 – the ‘Coffin Trap’ – are disadvantaged and ought to be avoided by bettors.

Using data from 78,595 greyhound performances in Great Britain, we empirically test the accuracy of this enduring intuition. Controlling for pre- and within-race conditions, our results support the community intuition. The ‘Coffin Trap’ significantly disadvantages greyhound and this is not reflected in market odds.  This finding are robust across races and empirical estimators. As there is no scientific basis for the origin of this belief, these results substantiate the success of a culturally surviving intuition. We conjecture that a valid cue has emerged from learning over time within the community. 

The paper is undergoing proofing and will be available shortly online. 

Is There An Incentive To Get Sacked?

11/9/2025

 
By Robbie Butler

Jose Mourinho was recently sacked by Turkish club Fenerbahçe after just over a year in charge. The Portuguese manager is no stranger to the sack — Chelsea (twice), Real Madrid, Manchester United… he’s been here before.

By September 2025, Mourinho has reportedly pocketed close to £100 million in pay-offs. Which raises the question: in football today, is there actually an incentive to get sacked?

The modern game chews through managers. Few survive longer than three or four seasons at one club. Pep Guardiola, appointed in 2016, is the longest-serving boss in the Premier League. Next comes Mikel Arteta (2020), then Marco Silva, who’s only been at Fulham since July 2021.

Stability is rare. And yet, instability can be lucrative. Had Silva been sacked in 2022 or 2023, for instance, Fulham would have been forced to pay off his contract — and another club would almost certainly have snapped him up.
Just look at Ange Postecoglou. Spurs let him go this summer, he cashed his pay-off, and now he’s landed on his feet at Nottingham Forest. In the space of a few months, his earnings have jumped simply because he was fired and re-hired.

Mourinho is the best example of this. Hard Jose survived in his role at Chelsea since 2004 it is extremely unlike he would have accumulated the same level of wealth. His sackings have allowed him to earn money for seasons that he already been paid for by the sacking club. Essentially getting paid twice for the same season by two different clubs – his current club and the previous one.

So maybe the quickest way for a manager to get rich isn’t by staying loyal to one club — it’s by being sacked, paid off, and then hired all over again.

Inequality Aversion in Soccer

4/9/2025

 
By John Considine
While following some threads on Google Scholar, I encountered a nice SSRN paper by Leo Morabito and Vincenzo Scoppa.  The paper examines decisions by referees from 21,400 soccer matches in major European leagues.  Each game is divided into separate minute intervals to give 2,142,000 observations.  While they say that they find "referees exhibit a strong preference for fairness", it is better to substitute the term "inequality aversion" for "fairness".  This is more in keeping with both the title of their paper and the results.

It is worth repeating that the paper uses minute-by-minute commentary data.  This facilitates a dynamic analysis of decisions based on the in-game situation.  They have three major findings.

First, they find that referees are not inclined towards increasing the inequality in the award of penalties.  For example, if the referee has awarded a penalty to one team then the probability of a second penalty to that team is reduced.  This supports the work of Wolf Schwarz in the 2011 paper 'Compensating tendencies in penalty kick decisions of referees in professional football: Evidence from the German Bundesliga 1963-2006'.  Compensating tendencies is similar inequality aversion.

Second, Morabito and Scoppa find that referees are not inclined towards increasing the inequality in the award of red and yellow cards.  A second inequality aversion.  One might suggest that it is "fair" that a player should get a red card if they deserve it.

Third, they find that referees are likely to increase injury time when there is an inequality in the score line compare to when the teams are level.  A recent post on this blog (here) presented a picture from a paper published in Oxford Economic Papers.  The picture clearly shows greater injury time, compared to a tied game, when either the home or away team is a goal behind.

Pep's Slow Start

3/9/2025

 
By David Butler

At the beginning of the Premier League season the markets priced Manchester City at just over 3/1 to lift the trophy in May. The OPTA models suggested they had an 18.8% chance of finishing first. The market odds have risen to 7/1 after three rounds of fixtures – Manchester City only have 3 points out of a possible 9, suffering two surprising defeats.

Can Pep forget about winning the Premier League? Probably. I would think these odds are not very generous. We’re starting to get signals now and eventual winners tend to incur few losses, especially so early in the season. The bookmakers now think it is a two-horse race. While there is more to play for outside of winning the league, when it comes to lifting the trophy, seasonal uncertainty quickly evaporates for the majority of clubs.  In this case, even for a club with high hopes just three weeks ago.

Early slips can be detrimental. Over Premier League history, Manchester United are the only club who were in a similar position to City after three rounds but still lifted the title. Ferguson’s sides started slowly three times (92/93, 98/99 and 07/08) - they only accumulated 2/3 points after the opening three fixtures but still ended up on top in May

    Archives

    October 2025
    September 2025
    August 2025
    July 2025
    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.